Opinion Poll by OpinionWay, 11–12 September 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 36.3% | 34.4–38.3% | 33.9–38.9% | 33.4–39.4% | 32.5–40.3% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 29.6% | 27.8–31.5% | 27.3–32.0% | 26.9–32.5% | 26.0–33.4% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.2% | 10.9–13.6% | 10.6–14.0% | 10.3–14.3% | 9.7–15.1% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.7–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.6–7.2% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.1–5.6% | 2.8–6.1% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.5% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% | 0.9–3.2% |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–34 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 26 | 25–29 | 24–29 | 24–29 | 23–31 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 10% | 98% | |
| 31 | 16% | 88% | |
| 32 | 42% | 73% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 31% | |
| 34 | 6% | 16% | |
| 35 | 7% | 10% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 24 | 4% | 98.9% | |
| 25 | 23% | 95% | |
| 26 | 25% | 72% | Median |
| 27 | 21% | 47% | |
| 28 | 14% | 26% | |
| 29 | 10% | 11% | |
| 30 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 31 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 10 | 43% | 88% | Median |
| 11 | 30% | 45% | |
| 12 | 9% | 15% | |
| 13 | 6% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 23% | 93% | |
| 8 | 45% | 71% | Median |
| 9 | 19% | 25% | |
| 10 | 6% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 72% | |
| 2 | 0% | 72% | |
| 3 | 0% | 72% | |
| 4 | 14% | 72% | |
| 5 | 53% | 57% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 5% | 7% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 10% | 98% | |
| 31 | 16% | 88% | |
| 32 | 42% | 73% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 31% | |
| 34 | 6% | 16% | |
| 35 | 7% | 10% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 72% | |
| 2 | 0% | 72% | |
| 3 | 0% | 72% | |
| 4 | 14% | 72% | |
| 5 | 53% | 57% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 4% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 5% | 7% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 11–12 September 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1010
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.90%