Opinion Poll by Ifop for Le Journal du Dimanche, 26–27 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.4% | 33.6–37.3% | 33.1–37.9% | 32.6–38.3% | 31.8–39.2% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 21.5% | 20.0–23.2% | 19.6–23.7% | 19.2–24.1% | 18.5–24.9% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.5–14.1% | 11.2–14.5% | 10.9–14.8% | 10.3–15.5% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.3–8.3% | 6.1–8.7% | 5.8–8.9% | 5.4–9.5% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.4–7.3% | 5.1–7.6% | 4.9–7.8% | 4.6–8.4% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.6–7.0% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.1–5.0% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.4% | 2.1–4.8% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 34 | 31–37 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 29–38 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 21 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 9–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 0–8 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 8% | 97% | |
| 32 | 13% | 89% | |
| 33 | 16% | 75% | |
| 34 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 35 | 7% | 37% | |
| 36 | 9% | 30% | |
| 37 | 16% | 21% | |
| 38 | 5% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 19 | 21% | 90% | |
| 20 | 15% | 69% | |
| 21 | 33% | 54% | Median |
| 22 | 13% | 21% | |
| 23 | 7% | 8% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 4% | 98% | |
| 11 | 27% | 94% | |
| 12 | 35% | 67% | Median |
| 13 | 24% | 32% | |
| 14 | 5% | 8% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 37% | 95% | |
| 7 | 38% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 20% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 98% | |
| 5 | 47% | 97% | |
| 6 | 37% | 50% | Median |
| 7 | 13% | 14% | |
| 8 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 41% | |
| 3 | 0% | 41% | |
| 4 | 3% | 41% | |
| 5 | 32% | 38% | |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 34 | 0% | 31–37 | 31–38 | 30–38 | 29–38 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 31 | 8% | 97% | |
| 32 | 13% | 89% | |
| 33 | 16% | 75% | |
| 34 | 23% | 59% | Median |
| 35 | 7% | 37% | |
| 36 | 9% | 30% | |
| 37 | 16% | 21% | |
| 38 | 5% | 5% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 5% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 37% | 95% | |
| 7 | 38% | 58% | Median |
| 8 | 20% | 20% | |
| 9 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 59% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 41% | |
| 2 | 0% | 41% | |
| 3 | 0% | 41% | |
| 4 | 3% | 41% | |
| 5 | 32% | 38% | |
| 6 | 7% | 7% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop
- Commissioner(s): Le Journal du Dimanche
- Fieldwork period: 26–27 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1092
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.29%