Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for RTL, 31 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.5% | 33.7–37.3% | 33.2–37.9% | 32.8–38.3% | 32.0–39.2% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 24.0% | 22.4–25.7% | 22.0–26.1% | 21.6–26.5% | 20.9–27.3% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.3% | 11.4–14.7% | 11.2–15.0% | 10.6–15.7% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.5–6.7% | 4.3–7.0% | 4.0–7.5% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.9% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.8% | 3.1–5.0% | 3.0–5.2% | 2.7–5.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.3% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 35 | 33–37 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 23 | 22–26 | 22–27 | 21–27 | 20–28 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 29% | 95% | |
| 34 | 6% | 66% | |
| 35 | 25% | 60% | Median |
| 36 | 2% | 35% | |
| 37 | 24% | 33% | |
| 38 | 2% | 8% | |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 21 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 22 | 26% | 95% | |
| 23 | 26% | 70% | Median |
| 24 | 7% | 44% | |
| 25 | 26% | 37% | |
| 26 | 5% | 12% | |
| 27 | 5% | 6% | |
| 28 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 0.4% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 31 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 5% | 98.6% | |
| 12 | 48% | 93% | Median |
| 13 | 30% | 46% | |
| 14 | 10% | 15% | |
| 15 | 5% | 6% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 87% | |
| 2 | 0% | 87% | |
| 3 | 0% | 87% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 5 | 58% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 29% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 42% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 58% | |
| 2 | 0% | 58% | |
| 3 | 0% | 58% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 58% | |
| 5 | 53% | 58% | Median |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 38% | |
| 2 | 0% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0% | 38% | |
| 4 | 2% | 38% | |
| 5 | 33% | 36% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.5% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 1.5% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 2% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 35 | 0.2% | 33–37 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 0.4% | 99.6% | |
| 32 | 4% | 99.2% | |
| 33 | 29% | 95% | |
| 34 | 6% | 66% | |
| 35 | 25% | 60% | Median |
| 36 | 2% | 35% | |
| 37 | 24% | 33% | |
| 38 | 2% | 8% | |
| 39 | 4% | 6% | |
| 40 | 2% | 2% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.2% | Majority |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 87% | |
| 2 | 0% | 87% | |
| 3 | 0% | 87% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 87% | |
| 5 | 58% | 87% | Median |
| 6 | 28% | 29% | |
| 7 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 62% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 38% | |
| 2 | 0% | 38% | |
| 3 | 0% | 38% | |
| 4 | 2% | 38% | |
| 5 | 33% | 36% | |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): RTL
- Fieldwork period: 31 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1163
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.59%