Opinion Poll by ELABE for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, 2–4 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 32.7% | 31.1–34.3% | 30.7–34.8% | 30.3–35.2% | 29.5–36.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 20.5% | 19.2–21.9% | 18.8–22.3% | 18.5–22.7% | 17.9–23.4% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.1% | 8.7–11.4% | 8.5–11.7% | 8.1–12.2% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.5–8.3% | 6.3–8.6% | 6.1–8.8% | 5.7–9.3% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 6.1–7.8% | 5.8–8.1% | 5.7–8.3% | 5.3–8.8% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.8–6.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.8–5.7% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.4–6.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.2% | 3.6–5.4% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.5–4.1% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.1–4.6% |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.3–2.1% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.4% | 0.9–2.7% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–36 | 28–38 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 | 7–12 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 7% | 95% | |
| 31 | 15% | 88% | |
| 32 | 24% | 74% | Median |
| 33 | 26% | 50% | |
| 34 | 11% | 23% | |
| 35 | 6% | 12% | |
| 36 | 5% | 6% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 9% | 98% | |
| 19 | 19% | 89% | |
| 20 | 31% | 69% | Median |
| 21 | 16% | 39% | |
| 22 | 18% | 23% | |
| 23 | 4% | 5% | |
| 24 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 25 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 27% | 90% | |
| 10 | 38% | 63% | Median |
| 11 | 22% | 25% | |
| 12 | 3% | 3% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 31% | 98% | |
| 7 | 43% | 67% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 24% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 18% | 99.8% | |
| 6 | 38% | 82% | Median |
| 7 | 27% | 43% | |
| 8 | 15% | 16% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 59% | |
| 2 | 0% | 59% | |
| 3 | 0% | 59% | |
| 4 | 2% | 59% | |
| 5 | 39% | 56% | Median |
| 6 | 17% | 17% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 74% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 26% | |
| 2 | 0% | 26% | |
| 3 | 0% | 26% | |
| 4 | 4% | 26% | |
| 5 | 22% | 23% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 16% | |
| 4 | 4% | 16% | |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nouveau Parti anticapitaliste (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–36 | 28–38 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 7% | 95% | |
| 31 | 15% | 88% | |
| 32 | 24% | 74% | Median |
| 33 | 26% | 50% | |
| 34 | 11% | 23% | |
| 35 | 6% | 12% | |
| 36 | 5% | 6% | |
| 37 | 0.5% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 31% | 98% | |
| 7 | 43% | 67% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 24% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 16% | |
| 4 | 4% | 16% | |
| 5 | 12% | 12% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ELABE
- Commissioner(s): BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche
- Fieldwork period: 2–4 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1414
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.74%