Opinion Poll by Ifop for Hexagone, 11–30 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 32.5% | 31.2–33.8% | 30.9–34.2% | 30.6–34.5% | 30.0–35.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 22.4% | 21.3–23.6% | 21.0–23.9% | 20.7–24.2% | 20.2–24.8% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 14.1–16.0% | 13.8–16.3% | 13.6–16.6% | 13.2–17.1% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.3–9.9% | 8.1–10.1% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 7.3–8.8% | 7.1–9.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.5–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.2% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–2.9% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.7–3.4% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.6% | 1.7–2.7% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.5–3.1% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.9–1.5% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 31 | 29–32 | 29–32 | 29–32 | 28–33 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 21 | 20–22 | 20–22 | 19–23 | 19–23 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 30 | 27% | 89% | |
| 31 | 40% | 62% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 22% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 19 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 20 | 28% | 97% | |
| 21 | 35% | 70% | Median |
| 22 | 31% | 35% | |
| 23 | 3% | 4% | |
| 24 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 36% | 98% | |
| 14 | 45% | 62% | Median |
| 15 | 16% | 17% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 61% | 91% | Median |
| 9 | 29% | 30% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 68% | 91% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 24% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 29–32 | 29–32 | 29–32 | 28–33 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 10% | 98.9% | |
| 30 | 27% | 89% | |
| 31 | 40% | 62% | Median |
| 32 | 20% | 22% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 68% | 91% | Median |
| 8 | 22% | 24% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.1% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop
- Commissioner(s): Hexagone
- Fieldwork period: 11–30 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 2231
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.98%