Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for LCI, 19 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 30.5% | 28.7–32.3% | 28.2–32.8% | 27.8–33.3% | 27.0–34.2% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.6–19.6% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.8–20.4% | 15.1–21.2% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.7–16.5% | 13.3–16.9% | 13.0–17.3% | 12.4–18.0% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.3–15.8% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–16.9% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.5% | 9.4–11.8% | 9.1–12.2% | 8.8–12.5% | 8.3–13.2% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–6.0% | 4.1–6.3% | 3.9–6.5% | 3.5–7.0% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 28 | 26–29 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 24–31 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 13–19 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 97% | |
| 26 | 11% | 93% | |
| 27 | 18% | 83% | |
| 28 | 32% | 64% | Median |
| 29 | 26% | 32% | |
| 30 | 4% | 6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 18% | 91% | |
| 16 | 17% | 74% | |
| 17 | 32% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 23% | 25% | |
| 19 | 2% | 3% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 13 | 40% | 94% | |
| 14 | 41% | 53% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 13% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 13% | 97% | |
| 12 | 47% | 84% | Median |
| 13 | 26% | 36% | |
| 14 | 9% | 10% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 8 | 22% | 99.4% | |
| 9 | 56% | 78% | Median |
| 10 | 19% | 22% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0% | 40% | |
| 3 | 0% | 40% | |
| 4 | 19% | 40% | |
| 5 | 20% | 21% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 28 | 0% | 26–29 | 25–30 | 24–30 | 24–31 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 14 | 0% | 13–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 24 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 25 | 3% | 97% | |
| 26 | 11% | 93% | |
| 27 | 18% | 83% | |
| 28 | 32% | 64% | Median |
| 29 | 26% | 32% | |
| 30 | 4% | 6% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 5% | 98.7% | |
| 13 | 40% | 94% | |
| 14 | 41% | 53% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 13% | |
| 16 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 60% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 40% | |
| 2 | 0% | 40% | |
| 3 | 0% | 40% | |
| 4 | 19% | 40% | |
| 5 | 20% | 21% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): LCI
- Fieldwork period: 19 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1073
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.99%