Opinion Poll by Ifop–Fiducial for Le Figaro and Sud Radio, 19–20 May 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 31.0% | 29.2–32.8% | 28.7–33.3% | 28.3–33.8% | 27.5–34.6% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.5–22.6% | 19.1–23.1% | 18.7–23.5% | 18.0–24.3% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 16.0% | 14.6–17.5% | 14.3–17.9% | 13.9–18.3% | 13.3–19.0% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.0% | 11.8–14.4% | 11.4–14.8% | 11.2–15.1% | 10.6–15.8% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.1–6.3% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.1–6.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.2% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.6–4.8% | 2.3–5.2% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.1–3.3% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 29–32 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–34 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 21 | 19–23 | 18–23 | 18–23 | 17–24 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 6% | 97% | |
| 29 | 22% | 91% | |
| 30 | 41% | 69% | Median |
| 31 | 9% | 28% | |
| 32 | 12% | 19% | |
| 33 | 4% | 8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 19 | 11% | 95% | |
| 20 | 24% | 84% | |
| 21 | 21% | 59% | Median |
| 22 | 27% | 38% | |
| 23 | 10% | 11% | |
| 24 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 24% | 98% | |
| 15 | 22% | 74% | |
| 16 | 38% | 52% | Median |
| 17 | 11% | 13% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 12% | 98% | |
| 12 | 20% | 86% | |
| 13 | 59% | 67% | Median |
| 14 | 5% | 8% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 86% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 14% | |
| 2 | 0% | 14% | |
| 3 | 0% | 14% | |
| 4 | 3% | 14% | |
| 5 | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 75% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 25% | |
| 2 | 0% | 25% | |
| 3 | 0% | 25% | |
| 4 | 2% | 25% | |
| 5 | 22% | 23% | |
| 6 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 29–32 | 28–33 | 27–34 | 26–34 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 16 | 0% | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 2% | 98.8% | |
| 28 | 6% | 97% | |
| 29 | 22% | 91% | |
| 30 | 41% | 69% | Median |
| 31 | 9% | 28% | |
| 32 | 12% | 19% | |
| 33 | 4% | 8% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 24% | 98% | |
| 15 | 22% | 74% | |
| 16 | 38% | 52% | Median |
| 17 | 11% | 13% | |
| 18 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.6% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.6% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop–Fiducial
- Commissioner(s): Le Figaro and Sud Radio
- Fieldwork period: 19–20 May 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1114
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.78%