Opinion Poll by Ifop–Fiducial for L’Opinion and Sud Radio, 24–25 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.2% | 32.4–36.0% | 31.9–36.6% | 31.4–37.0% | 30.6–37.9% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 12.3–14.9% | 11.9–15.3% | 11.6–15.6% | 11.0–16.3% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.8% | 11.6–14.1% | 11.2–14.5% | 10.9–14.9% | 10.4–15.5% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.3% | 10.2–12.6% | 9.9–13.0% | 9.6–13.3% | 9.1–14.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 11.3% | 10.2–12.6% | 9.9–13.0% | 9.6–13.3% | 9.1–14.0% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.7–5.9% | 3.6–6.1% | 3.3–6.6% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.5% | 3.7–5.8% | 3.5–6.0% | 3.2–6.4% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.5–5.0% | 3.3–5.3% | 3.1–5.5% | 2.8–5.9% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.5–3.3% | 1.3–3.7% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.3% | 0.9–1.8% | 0.8–2.0% | 0.7–2.1% | 0.6–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98% | |
| 31 | 7% | 93% | |
| 32 | 9% | 86% | |
| 33 | 40% | 77% | Median |
| 34 | 8% | 37% | |
| 35 | 27% | 29% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 10% | 98% | |
| 12 | 8% | 88% | |
| 13 | 71% | 79% | Median |
| 14 | 6% | 8% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 11 | 12% | 93% | |
| 12 | 71% | 81% | Median |
| 13 | 9% | 11% | |
| 14 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98% | |
| 10 | 16% | 93% | |
| 11 | 38% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 38% | 39% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 98% | |
| 10 | 38% | 92% | |
| 11 | 47% | 53% | Median |
| 12 | 4% | 6% | |
| 13 | 2% | 2% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 6% | 12% | |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 16% | |
| 4 | 8% | 16% | |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 3% | 6% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98% | |
| 31 | 7% | 93% | |
| 32 | 9% | 86% | |
| 33 | 40% | 77% | Median |
| 34 | 8% | 37% | |
| 35 | 27% | 29% | |
| 36 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 5% | 98% | |
| 10 | 16% | 93% | |
| 11 | 38% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 38% | 39% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 16% | |
| 4 | 8% | 16% | |
| 5 | 7% | 7% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop–Fiducial
- Commissioner(s): L’Opinion and Sud Radio
- Fieldwork period: 24–25 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1112
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.48%