Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for Le Point, 30 September–1 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 30.3% | 28.8–31.9% | 28.4–32.3% | 28.1–32.7% | 27.4–33.4% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 18.0% | 16.8–19.3% | 16.4–19.7% | 16.1–20.0% | 15.6–20.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 14.7% | 13.6–15.9% | 13.2–16.2% | 13.0–16.5% | 12.5–17.1% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 12.5% | 11.5–13.7% | 11.2–14.0% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.5–14.8% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.7% | 6.9–8.6% | 6.6–8.9% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.1–9.6% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.8–6.3% | 4.6–6.5% | 4.4–6.7% | 4.1–7.1% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 3.1–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.6–5.1% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.7% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.6–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 29 | 27–30 | 26–31 | 26–31 | 25–32 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 16–18 | 15–18 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 8% | 92% | |
| 28 | 19% | 83% | |
| 29 | 40% | 64% | Median |
| 30 | 15% | 24% | |
| 31 | 8% | 9% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 15 | 8% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 54% | 91% | Median |
| 17 | 24% | 37% | |
| 18 | 9% | 13% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 12 | 13% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 35% | 86% | |
| 14 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 9% | 10% | |
| 16 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 49% | 91% | Median |
| 12 | 31% | 42% | |
| 13 | 10% | 11% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 36% | 98.5% | |
| 7 | 50% | 63% | Median |
| 8 | 11% | 12% | |
| 9 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 80% | |
| 2 | 0% | 80% | |
| 3 | 0% | 80% | |
| 4 | 12% | 80% | |
| 5 | 60% | 69% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 29 | 0% | 27–30 | 26–31 | 26–31 | 25–32 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 11–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 26 | 8% | 99.3% | |
| 27 | 8% | 92% | |
| 28 | 19% | 83% | |
| 29 | 40% | 64% | Median |
| 30 | 15% | 24% | |
| 31 | 8% | 9% | |
| 32 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 10 | 8% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 49% | 91% | Median |
| 12 | 31% | 42% | |
| 13 | 10% | 11% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 80% | |
| 2 | 0% | 80% | |
| 3 | 0% | 80% | |
| 4 | 12% | 80% | |
| 5 | 60% | 69% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 8% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Cluster17
- Commissioner(s): Le Point
- Fieldwork period: 30 September–1 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1534
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.57%