Opinion Poll by ELABE for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, 30–31 October 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.9% | 34.3–37.6% | 33.9–38.0% | 33.5–38.4% | 32.7–39.2% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 15.2% | 14.1–16.5% | 13.7–16.9% | 13.5–17.2% | 12.9–17.8% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.5% | 11.5–13.7% | 11.2–14.1% | 10.9–14.3% | 10.4–14.9% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.1–10.1% | 7.9–10.4% | 7.7–10.7% | 7.3–11.2% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.1% | 5.4–7.0% | 5.2–7.3% | 5.0–7.5% | 4.7–7.9% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.5–6.1% | 4.3–6.3% | 4.2–6.5% | 3.9–6.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.5–6.0% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.4% | 3.8–6.8% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–4.0% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.8% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–3.0% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.4% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.8–1.6% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.7–1.8% | 0.6–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 35 | 33–39 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–18 | 12–18 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 13 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 15% | 95% | |
| 34 | 17% | 80% | |
| 35 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 36 | 11% | 45% | |
| 37 | 6% | 34% | |
| 38 | 7% | 29% | |
| 39 | 21% | 22% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 18% | 97% | |
| 14 | 23% | 80% | |
| 15 | 18% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 34% | 39% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 4% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 13% | 94% | |
| 12 | 30% | 81% | |
| 13 | 42% | 51% | Median |
| 14 | 7% | 9% | |
| 15 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 9% | 99.7% | |
| 8 | 27% | 91% | |
| 9 | 48% | 64% | Median |
| 10 | 15% | 15% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 5 | 50% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 39% | 45% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 27% | |
| 3 | 0% | 27% | |
| 4 | 5% | 27% | |
| 5 | 7% | 22% | |
| 6 | 15% | 15% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 3% | 50% | Median |
| 5 | 38% | 47% | |
| 6 | 9% | 10% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0.5% | 3% | |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 35 | 0.1% | 33–39 | 33–39 | 32–39 | 31–40 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 4–7 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.3% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 3% | 98% | |
| 33 | 15% | 95% | |
| 34 | 17% | 80% | |
| 35 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 36 | 11% | 45% | |
| 37 | 6% | 34% | |
| 38 | 7% | 29% | |
| 39 | 21% | 22% | |
| 40 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 42 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 43 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 96% | |
| 2 | 0% | 96% | |
| 3 | 0% | 96% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 96% | |
| 5 | 50% | 95% | Median |
| 6 | 39% | 45% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 73% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 27% | |
| 2 | 0% | 27% | |
| 3 | 0% | 27% | |
| 4 | 5% | 27% | |
| 5 | 7% | 22% | |
| 6 | 15% | 15% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ELABE
- Commissioner(s): BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche
- Fieldwork period: 30–31 October 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1437
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.77%