Opinion Poll by Odoxa for Public Sénat, 19–20 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.5% | 33.7–37.3% | 33.2–37.8% | 32.8–38.3% | 31.9–39.2% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.1% | 12.8–15.5% | 12.5–15.9% | 12.2–16.2% | 11.6–16.9% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 13.6% | 12.4–15.0% | 12.0–15.3% | 11.7–15.7% | 11.2–16.4% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.6% | 10.5–12.9% | 10.1–13.3% | 9.9–13.6% | 9.3–14.2% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.1% | 8.1–10.3% | 7.8–10.6% | 7.6–10.9% | 7.1–11.5% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 6.3% | 5.5–7.3% | 5.2–7.6% | 5.0–7.9% | 4.7–8.4% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.5–4.2% | 2.3–4.4% | 2.1–4.8% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–4.1% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.7–1.7% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 12–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 4–7 | 4–7 | 0–7 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 6% | 92% | |
| 32 | 23% | 85% | |
| 33 | 35% | 62% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 27% | |
| 35 | 12% | 13% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 6% | 98% | |
| 12 | 54% | 91% | Median |
| 13 | 21% | 38% | |
| 14 | 15% | 16% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 32% | 97% | |
| 12 | 31% | 65% | Median |
| 13 | 29% | 35% | |
| 14 | 3% | 6% | |
| 15 | 2% | 2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 16% | 98% | |
| 10 | 39% | 81% | Median |
| 11 | 34% | 43% | |
| 12 | 8% | 9% | |
| 13 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 100% | |
| 7 | 20% | 90% | |
| 8 | 28% | 71% | Median |
| 9 | 40% | 42% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.0% | |
| 4 | 6% | 99.0% | |
| 5 | 57% | 93% | Median |
| 6 | 31% | 37% | |
| 7 | 6% | 6% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 7% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 6% | 92% | |
| 32 | 23% | 85% | |
| 33 | 35% | 62% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 27% | |
| 35 | 12% | 13% | |
| 36 | 0.7% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 100% | |
| 7 | 20% | 90% | |
| 8 | 28% | 71% | Median |
| 9 | 40% | 42% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Odoxa
- Commissioner(s): Public Sénat
- Fieldwork period: 19–20 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1156
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.48%