Opinion Poll by Verian, 18–20 November 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.7% | 33.7–37.7% | 33.2–38.3% | 32.7–38.8% | 31.7–39.8% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 16.8% | 15.3–18.5% | 14.9–18.9% | 14.6–19.4% | 13.9–20.2% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.6% | 11.3–14.1% | 10.9–14.5% | 10.6–14.8% | 10.0–15.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.5–13.2% | 10.1–13.6% | 9.8–13.9% | 9.2–14.7% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.5% | 6.5–8.7% | 6.2–9.0% | 5.9–9.3% | 5.5–9.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.1% | 4.3–6.2% | 4.1–6.5% | 3.9–6.7% | 3.5–7.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 3.0–5.5% | 2.7–6.0% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 | 13–19 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–14 | 9–14 | 9–14 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 9% | 94% | |
| 32 | 21% | 85% | |
| 33 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 34 | 20% | 46% | |
| 35 | 13% | 27% | |
| 36 | 8% | 13% | |
| 37 | 4% | 6% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 5% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 15% | 95% | |
| 15 | 28% | 79% | |
| 16 | 31% | 51% | Median |
| 17 | 15% | 20% | |
| 18 | 4% | 6% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 1.2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 16% | 97% | |
| 11 | 34% | 81% | Median |
| 12 | 29% | 47% | |
| 13 | 12% | 17% | |
| 14 | 5% | 5% | |
| 15 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 10% | 98.6% | |
| 10 | 31% | 88% | |
| 11 | 35% | 57% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 22% | |
| 13 | 5% | 6% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 39% | 93% | |
| 7 | 37% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 15% | 17% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 41% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 59% | |
| 2 | 0% | 59% | |
| 3 | 0% | 59% | |
| 4 | 22% | 59% | Median |
| 5 | 33% | 37% | |
| 6 | 4% | 5% | |
| 7 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 9% | 11% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–36 | 30–37 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 9% | 94% | |
| 32 | 21% | 85% | |
| 33 | 18% | 64% | Median |
| 34 | 20% | 46% | |
| 35 | 13% | 27% | |
| 36 | 8% | 13% | |
| 37 | 4% | 6% | |
| 38 | 1.1% | 1.3% | |
| 39 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.1% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 6 | 39% | 93% | |
| 7 | 37% | 54% | Median |
| 8 | 15% | 17% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 89% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 11% | |
| 2 | 0% | 11% | |
| 3 | 0% | 11% | |
| 4 | 9% | 11% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 18–20 November 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 939
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.68%