Opinion Poll by Ifop–Fiducial for Le Figaro and Sud Radio, 26–27 February 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 36.5% | 34.7–38.4% | 34.2–38.9% | 33.8–39.4% | 32.9–40.3% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 12.8% | 11.6–14.2% | 11.3–14.6% | 11.0–14.9% | 10.4–15.6% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.4–12.5% | 9.2–12.8% | 8.7–13.5% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 10.9% | 9.8–12.1% | 9.4–12.5% | 9.2–12.8% | 8.7–13.5% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.8% | 9.7–12.1% | 9.4–12.4% | 9.1–12.7% | 8.6–13.4% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.8–5.4% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.4–5.9% | 3.1–6.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.4–4.9% | 3.2–5.2% | 3.1–5.4% | 2.8–5.8% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.8–4.4% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.5% | 2.1–3.7% | 1.9–3.9% | 1.7–4.3% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.2–3.5% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 36 | 34–38 | 34–40 | 33–40 | 31–40 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–14 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 10 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 | 8–13 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 7% | 96% | |
| 35 | 35% | 89% | |
| 36 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 37 | 15% | 44% | |
| 38 | 19% | 29% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 40 | 9% | 9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 5% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 38% | 95% | |
| 12 | 19% | 57% | Median |
| 13 | 30% | 38% | |
| 14 | 7% | 8% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 21% | 98% | |
| 10 | 38% | 77% | Median |
| 11 | 19% | 39% | |
| 12 | 12% | 20% | |
| 13 | 8% | 8% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 22% | 94% | |
| 10 | 42% | 72% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 29% | |
| 12 | 5% | 8% | |
| 13 | 2% | 3% | |
| 14 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 8% | 93% | |
| 10 | 52% | 85% | Median |
| 11 | 21% | 33% | |
| 12 | 9% | 12% | |
| 13 | 3% | 3% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 4% | 12% | |
| 5 | 6% | 7% | |
| 6 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 30% | |
| 2 | 0% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0% | 30% | |
| 4 | 4% | 30% | |
| 5 | 26% | 26% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 36 | 0.1% | 34–38 | 34–40 | 33–40 | 31–40 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 31 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 32 | 0.7% | 98.9% | |
| 33 | 2% | 98% | |
| 34 | 7% | 96% | |
| 35 | 35% | 89% | |
| 36 | 10% | 54% | Median |
| 37 | 15% | 44% | |
| 38 | 19% | 29% | |
| 39 | 0.9% | 10% | |
| 40 | 9% | 9% | |
| 41 | 0.1% | 0.1% | Majority |
| 42 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 21% | 98% | |
| 10 | 38% | 77% | Median |
| 11 | 19% | 39% | |
| 12 | 12% | 20% | |
| 13 | 8% | 8% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 70% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 30% | |
| 2 | 0% | 30% | |
| 3 | 0% | 30% | |
| 4 | 4% | 30% | |
| 5 | 26% | 26% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop–Fiducial
- Commissioner(s): Le Figaro and Sud Radio
- Fieldwork period: 26–27 February 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1131
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.95%