Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, 22 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.1% | 33.2–37.0% | 32.6–37.6% | 32.2–38.1% | 31.3–39.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 14.0–16.9% | 13.6–17.3% | 13.2–17.7% | 12.6–18.5% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.3% | 12.2–15.8% | 11.8–16.1% | 11.2–16.9% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.6–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.0% | 9.4–14.7% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.0–9.9% | 6.8–10.3% | 6.3–10.9% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.7–5.4% | 3.5–5.7% | 3.4–6.0% | 3.0–6.4% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.0% | 2.1–4.2% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.4% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–36 | 28–37 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 11 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 8–13 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 97% | |
| 30 | 7% | 94% | |
| 31 | 5% | 87% | |
| 32 | 26% | 82% | |
| 33 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 34 | 26% | 41% | |
| 35 | 6% | 15% | |
| 36 | 7% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 8% | 98% | |
| 13 | 28% | 90% | |
| 14 | 26% | 63% | Median |
| 15 | 27% | 36% | |
| 16 | 8% | 10% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 9% | 98% | |
| 12 | 28% | 90% | |
| 13 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 14 | 26% | 37% | |
| 15 | 10% | 11% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 9 | 11% | 99.1% | |
| 10 | 37% | 89% | |
| 11 | 33% | 52% | Median |
| 12 | 11% | 19% | |
| 13 | 8% | 8% | |
| 14 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 37% | 92% | |
| 8 | 47% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 12% | 48% | |
| 5 | 34% | 35% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 85% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 15% | |
| 2 | 0% | 15% | |
| 3 | 0% | 15% | |
| 4 | 10% | 15% | |
| 5 | 5% | 5% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 30–35 | 29–36 | 28–36 | 28–37 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 97% | |
| 30 | 7% | 94% | |
| 31 | 5% | 87% | |
| 32 | 26% | 82% | |
| 33 | 15% | 56% | Median |
| 34 | 26% | 41% | |
| 35 | 6% | 15% | |
| 36 | 7% | 9% | |
| 37 | 2% | 2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 8% | 99.5% | |
| 7 | 37% | 92% | |
| 8 | 47% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 6% | 8% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 12% | 48% | |
| 5 | 34% | 35% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): M6 and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 22 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1004
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.52%