Opinion Poll by OpinionWay, 26–27 March 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 37.9% | 36.0–39.9% | 35.4–40.5% | 35.0–41.0% | 34.1–41.9% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 16.5% | 15.1–18.1% | 14.7–18.6% | 14.4–19.0% | 13.7–19.7% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 14.5% | 13.1–16.0% | 12.7–16.4% | 12.4–16.8% | 11.8–17.5% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 12.2–14.9% | 11.8–15.3% | 11.5–15.7% | 10.9–16.4% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.5% | 10.3–12.9% | 10.0–13.3% | 9.7–13.6% | 9.1–14.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–5.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.4–7.0% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 9% | 97% | |
| 31 | 19% | 88% | |
| 32 | 24% | 69% | Median |
| 33 | 17% | 46% | |
| 34 | 20% | 28% | |
| 35 | 5% | 8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 9% | 99.0% | |
| 13 | 29% | 90% | |
| 14 | 36% | 61% | Median |
| 15 | 18% | 25% | |
| 16 | 6% | 7% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 11 | 24% | 94% | |
| 12 | 39% | 70% | Median |
| 13 | 23% | 31% | |
| 14 | 7% | 8% | |
| 15 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 19% | 96% | |
| 11 | 39% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 28% | 38% | |
| 13 | 9% | 10% | |
| 14 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 38% | 87% | Median |
| 10 | 36% | 49% | |
| 11 | 11% | 13% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 37% | 48% | |
| 5 | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–36 | 29–36 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 9% | 97% | |
| 31 | 19% | 88% | |
| 32 | 24% | 69% | Median |
| 33 | 17% | 46% | |
| 34 | 20% | 28% | |
| 35 | 5% | 8% | |
| 36 | 2% | 3% | |
| 37 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 12% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 38% | 87% | Median |
| 10 | 36% | 49% | |
| 11 | 11% | 13% | |
| 12 | 1.5% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 37% | 48% | |
| 5 | 10% | 11% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 26–27 March 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1010
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.81%