Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, 28–30 April 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.7% | 33.1–36.3% | 32.7–36.7% | 32.3–37.1% | 31.6–37.9% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 15.7% | 14.5–16.9% | 14.2–17.3% | 13.9–17.6% | 13.4–18.2% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.6–13.8% | 11.3–14.2% | 11.1–14.4% | 10.6–15.0% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.7–12.8% | 10.4–13.1% | 10.1–13.4% | 9.7–14.0% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 10.0–12.1% | 9.7–12.4% | 9.5–12.7% | 9.1–13.2% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.8% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.2% | 3.7–6.6% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–4.0% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.7% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 34 | 31–34 | 30–34 | 30–34 | 29–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 19% | 94% | |
| 32 | 12% | 75% | |
| 33 | 9% | 63% | |
| 34 | 52% | 54% | Median |
| 35 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 13 | 8% | 98% | |
| 14 | 37% | 90% | |
| 15 | 43% | 53% | Median |
| 16 | 9% | 9% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 13% | 99.8% | |
| 11 | 17% | 87% | |
| 12 | 44% | 70% | Median |
| 13 | 26% | 26% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 9% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 31% | 91% | |
| 11 | 56% | 60% | Median |
| 12 | 3% | 4% | |
| 13 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 44% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 43% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 66% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 34% | |
| 2 | 0% | 34% | |
| 3 | 0% | 34% | |
| 4 | 18% | 34% | |
| 5 | 15% | 16% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 34 | 0% | 31–34 | 30–34 | 30–34 | 29–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.7% | |
| 30 | 5% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 19% | 94% | |
| 32 | 12% | 75% | |
| 33 | 9% | 63% | |
| 34 | 52% | 54% | Median |
| 35 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 44% | 98.9% | |
| 10 | 43% | 55% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 66% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 34% | |
| 2 | 0% | 34% | |
| 3 | 0% | 34% | |
| 4 | 18% | 34% | |
| 5 | 15% | 16% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): M6 and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 28–30 April 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1500
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.20%