Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Le Parisien, 27–28 May 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.6% | 33.0–36.2% | 32.6–36.6% | 32.2–37.0% | 31.5–37.8% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 18.8% | 17.5–20.1% | 17.2–20.5% | 16.9–20.9% | 16.3–21.5% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 13.3% | 12.2–14.4% | 11.9–14.8% | 11.6–15.1% | 11.1–15.7% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.1% | 9.1–11.1% | 8.9–11.4% | 8.6–11.7% | 8.2–12.2% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 8.0–10.0% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.2–11.0% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.1% | 3.5–4.9% | 3.4–5.1% | 3.2–5.3% | 3.0–5.6% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.9–5.5% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.2–4.6% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.6% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–35 | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–36 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–20 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 18% | 96% | |
| 32 | 17% | 78% | |
| 33 | 33% | 62% | Median |
| 34 | 14% | 29% | |
| 35 | 13% | 15% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 16 | 11% | 98% | |
| 17 | 31% | 88% | |
| 18 | 24% | 57% | Median |
| 19 | 28% | 33% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 11 | 10% | 98.7% | |
| 12 | 49% | 89% | Median |
| 13 | 30% | 39% | |
| 14 | 9% | 10% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 16% | 99.0% | |
| 9 | 55% | 83% | Median |
| 10 | 23% | 28% | |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 14% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 53% | 85% | Median |
| 9 | 29% | 33% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 90% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 10% | |
| 2 | 0% | 10% | |
| 3 | 0% | 10% | |
| 4 | 7% | 10% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–35 | 31–35 | 30–35 | 30–36 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.6% | |
| 31 | 18% | 96% | |
| 32 | 17% | 78% | |
| 33 | 33% | 62% | Median |
| 34 | 14% | 29% | |
| 35 | 13% | 15% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 14% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 53% | 85% | Median |
| 9 | 29% | 33% | |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 95% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 5% | |
| 4 | 5% | 5% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Le Parisien
- Fieldwork period: 27–28 May 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1501
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.62%