Opinion Poll by OpinionWay for Le Journal du Dimanche, 10–11 June 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.0% | 32.0–36.0% | 31.4–36.6% | 30.9–37.1% | 30.0–38.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 17.3% | 15.8–19.0% | 15.3–19.5% | 15.0–19.9% | 14.3–20.8% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.3% | 12.9–15.9% | 12.5–16.4% | 12.2–16.8% | 11.5–17.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.6–15.6% | 12.2–16.0% | 11.9–16.4% | 11.2–17.2% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.3% | 7.0–10.7% | 6.5–11.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.3–4.7% | 2.1–5.2% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.5–3.6% | 1.3–4.0% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 30 | 13% | 92% | |
| 31 | 24% | 79% | |
| 32 | 20% | 55% | Median |
| 33 | 24% | 36% | |
| 34 | 8% | 11% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 8% | 98% | |
| 15 | 26% | 90% | |
| 16 | 32% | 64% | Median |
| 17 | 23% | 32% | |
| 18 | 7% | 9% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 20% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 26% | 79% | |
| 13 | 10% | 53% | Median |
| 14 | 30% | 43% | |
| 15 | 11% | 13% | |
| 16 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 9% | 98.7% | |
| 12 | 41% | 89% | Median |
| 13 | 23% | 48% | |
| 14 | 16% | 25% | |
| 15 | 8% | 9% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 37% | 89% | |
| 8 | 28% | 52% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 24% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 29–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.2% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 6% | 98.6% | |
| 30 | 13% | 92% | |
| 31 | 24% | 79% | |
| 32 | 20% | 55% | Median |
| 33 | 24% | 36% | |
| 34 | 8% | 11% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 10% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 37% | 89% | |
| 8 | 28% | 52% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 24% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): Le Journal du Dimanche
- Fieldwork period: 10–11 June 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 901
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.00%