Opinion Poll by OpinionWay for Les Echos, 8–9 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.8% | 32.9–36.9% | 32.3–37.5% | 31.8–38.0% | 30.9–39.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 21.0% | 19.3–22.8% | 18.9–23.3% | 18.5–23.7% | 17.7–24.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 14.3% | 12.9–15.9% | 12.5–16.3% | 12.2–16.7% | 11.5–17.5% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.6% | 8.5–11.0% | 8.2–11.4% | 7.9–11.7% | 7.4–12.4% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.6–11.4% | 7.1–12.0% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 3.9–5.7% | 3.7–6.0% | 3.5–6.2% | 3.1–6.7% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.4–4.7% | 2.1–5.2% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.0–3.4% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.6% | 0.4–1.7% | 0.3–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 28–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 17–21 | 16–22 | 15–22 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–16 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–10 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 14% | 97% | |
| 30 | 13% | 83% | |
| 31 | 14% | 70% | |
| 32 | 26% | 56% | Median |
| 33 | 19% | 30% | |
| 34 | 9% | 11% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.2% | |
| 17 | 6% | 97% | |
| 18 | 37% | 92% | |
| 19 | 31% | 55% | Median |
| 20 | 12% | 24% | |
| 21 | 9% | 12% | |
| 22 | 3% | 3% | |
| 23 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 10% | 98% | |
| 12 | 16% | 88% | |
| 13 | 61% | 72% | Median |
| 14 | 6% | 11% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 14% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 32% | 85% | |
| 9 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 10 | 10% | 11% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 13% | 96% | |
| 8 | 59% | 84% | Median |
| 9 | 18% | 24% | |
| 10 | 5% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 68% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 32% | |
| 2 | 0% | 32% | |
| 3 | 0% | 32% | |
| 4 | 23% | 32% | |
| 5 | 8% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 29–34 | 29–34 | 28–34 | 28–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.7% | |
| 29 | 14% | 97% | |
| 30 | 13% | 83% | |
| 31 | 14% | 70% | |
| 32 | 26% | 56% | Median |
| 33 | 19% | 30% | |
| 34 | 9% | 11% | |
| 35 | 2% | 2% | |
| 36 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 14% | 98.6% | |
| 8 | 32% | 85% | |
| 9 | 41% | 52% | Median |
| 10 | 10% | 11% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.1% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): Les Echos
- Fieldwork period: 8–9 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 924
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.97%