Opinion Poll by ELABE for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, 9–10 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.8% | 33.2–36.5% | 32.8–36.9% | 32.4–37.3% | 31.6–38.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 17.3% | 16.0–18.6% | 15.7–19.0% | 15.4–19.3% | 14.8–20.0% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 16.9% | 15.7–18.3% | 15.4–18.6% | 15.1–19.0% | 14.5–19.6% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.3–10.3% | 8.0–10.6% | 7.8–10.9% | 7.4–11.4% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.2–10.2% | 8.0–10.5% | 7.8–10.8% | 7.3–11.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.5% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.6–3.8% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.1–3.1% | 1.9–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.6–3.8% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.6% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.1% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.8–2.5% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1–1.9% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–34 | 31–34 | 30–35 | 30–36 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 15–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 10% | 95% | |
| 32 | 27% | 85% | |
| 33 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 34 | 33% | 37% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 7% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 32% | 93% | |
| 16 | 26% | 61% | Median |
| 17 | 28% | 35% | |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 100% | |
| 14 | 9% | 98% | |
| 15 | 25% | 89% | |
| 16 | 39% | 64% | Median |
| 17 | 21% | 25% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 41% | 90% | Median |
| 9 | 42% | 49% | |
| 10 | 7% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 7 | 32% | 99.3% | |
| 8 | 43% | 67% | Median |
| 9 | 20% | 25% | |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–34 | 31–34 | 30–35 | 30–36 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 31 | 10% | 95% | |
| 32 | 27% | 85% | |
| 33 | 20% | 58% | Median |
| 34 | 33% | 37% | |
| 35 | 3% | 4% | |
| 36 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 41% | 90% | Median |
| 9 | 42% | 49% | |
| 10 | 7% | 7% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ELABE
- Commissioner(s): BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche
- Fieldwork period: 9–10 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1430
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.25%