Opinion Poll by Verian for L’Hémicycle, 8–10 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 36.9% | 35.0–38.9% | 34.5–39.5% | 34.0–40.0% | 33.1–41.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.3–26.8% | 22.8–27.3% | 22.4–27.8% | 21.6–28.7% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.6–16.5% | 13.2–17.0% | 12.9–17.3% | 12.3–18.1% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.0% | 9.8–12.4% | 9.5–12.8% | 9.2–13.2% | 8.7–13.8% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.0–8.1% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.1–9.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.9–4.7% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–34 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 29–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 22 | 20–23 | 19–23 | 19–24 | 18–25 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–15 | 10–15 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–12 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 13% | 96% | |
| 31 | 19% | 83% | |
| 32 | 36% | 63% | Median |
| 33 | 16% | 27% | |
| 34 | 8% | 11% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 19 | 4% | 99.4% | |
| 20 | 12% | 95% | |
| 21 | 30% | 83% | |
| 22 | 34% | 53% | Median |
| 23 | 14% | 18% | |
| 24 | 4% | 5% | |
| 25 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 26 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 10% | 98.8% | |
| 12 | 33% | 89% | |
| 13 | 36% | 56% | Median |
| 14 | 17% | 20% | |
| 15 | 3% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 17% | 98% | |
| 9 | 40% | 81% | Median |
| 10 | 34% | 41% | |
| 11 | 7% | 7% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 36% | 96% | |
| 6 | 49% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 12% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 29–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–7 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 13% | 96% | |
| 31 | 19% | 83% | |
| 32 | 36% | 63% | Median |
| 33 | 16% | 27% | |
| 34 | 8% | 11% | |
| 35 | 2% | 3% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 36% | 96% | |
| 6 | 49% | 60% | Median |
| 7 | 11% | 12% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Verian
- Commissioner(s): L’Hémicycle
- Fieldwork period: 8–10 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 988
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.82%