Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for Le Grand Continent, 22–24 July 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 30.0% | 28.5–31.6% | 28.0–32.1% | 27.6–32.4% | 26.9–33.2% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 18.3% | 17.0–19.6% | 16.6–20.0% | 16.3–20.4% | 15.7–21.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 15.9% | 14.7–17.2% | 14.4–17.6% | 14.1–17.9% | 13.5–18.6% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.2% | 9.3–11.3% | 9.0–11.7% | 8.7–11.9% | 8.3–12.5% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.8–9.8% | 7.6–10.1% | 7.4–10.3% | 7.0–10.9% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.2–5.0% | 3.1–5.1% | 2.8–5.5% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.4% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.5–5.1% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.9–4.1% | 2.7–4.3% | 2.6–4.5% | 2.3–4.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.1–3.9% | 1.9–4.3% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.6% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.1–3.1% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.4% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 28–31 | 28–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 18 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–20 | 15–21 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 8–12 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 28 | 7% | 95% | |
| 29 | 13% | 89% | |
| 30 | 40% | 75% | Median |
| 31 | 29% | 36% | |
| 32 | 6% | 7% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 12% | 97% | |
| 17 | 29% | 85% | |
| 18 | 49% | 56% | Median |
| 19 | 5% | 8% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.5% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 4% | 98% | |
| 15 | 27% | 95% | |
| 16 | 46% | 67% | Median |
| 17 | 20% | 21% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 11% | 100% | |
| 9 | 45% | 89% | Median |
| 10 | 36% | 43% | |
| 11 | 6% | 8% | |
| 12 | 2% | 2% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 31% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 32% | 68% | Median |
| 9 | 30% | 36% | |
| 10 | 3% | 6% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 28–31 | 28–32 | 27–32 | 26–33 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 4% | 99.3% | |
| 28 | 7% | 95% | |
| 29 | 13% | 89% | |
| 30 | 40% | 75% | Median |
| 31 | 29% | 36% | |
| 32 | 6% | 7% | |
| 33 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 7 | 31% | 99.5% | |
| 8 | 32% | 68% | Median |
| 9 | 30% | 36% | |
| 10 | 3% | 6% | |
| 11 | 3% | 3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 0.7% | 2% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Cluster17
- Commissioner(s): Le Grand Continent
- Fieldwork period: 22–24 July 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1407
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.30%