Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, 18–19 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.8% | 34.1–37.6% | 33.6–38.1% | 33.2–38.6% | 32.4–39.4% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 18.2% | 16.9–19.7% | 16.5–20.1% | 16.2–20.5% | 15.5–21.2% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.4–18.1% | 15.0–18.5% | 14.7–18.9% | 14.1–19.6% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.5–10.7% | 8.2–11.0% | 8.0–11.3% | 7.5–11.9% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.4–8.3% | 6.2–8.6% | 5.9–8.9% | 5.6–9.4% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.8–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.4–5.1% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.5–4.5% | 2.2–4.9% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.8% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% | 1.3–3.4% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 32–35 | 32–36 | 31–36 | 31–37 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 17 | 16–17 | 16–18 | 15–19 | 14–19 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 9% | 95% | |
| 33 | 56% | 86% | Median |
| 34 | 10% | 30% | |
| 35 | 13% | 20% | |
| 36 | 6% | 7% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 16 | 14% | 96% | |
| 17 | 73% | 82% | Median |
| 18 | 5% | 9% | |
| 19 | 3% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 12% | 99.2% | |
| 15 | 67% | 87% | Median |
| 16 | 13% | 20% | |
| 17 | 3% | 7% | |
| 18 | 4% | 4% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 23% | 94% | |
| 9 | 63% | 71% | Median |
| 10 | 7% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 17% | 92% | |
| 7 | 65% | 75% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 32–35 | 32–36 | 31–36 | 31–37 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0.2% | 99.9% | |
| 31 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 32 | 9% | 95% | |
| 33 | 56% | 86% | Median |
| 34 | 10% | 30% | |
| 35 | 13% | 20% | |
| 36 | 6% | 7% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 0.9% | |
| 38 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 8% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 17% | 92% | |
| 7 | 65% | 75% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): M6 and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 18–19 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1222
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.10%