Opinion Poll by Ifop–Fiducial for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio, 24–25 August 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 33.6% | 31.8–35.5% | 31.3–36.1% | 30.9–36.5% | 30.0–37.4% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 17.3% | 15.9–18.9% | 15.5–19.3% | 15.2–19.7% | 14.5–20.5% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 17.0% | 15.6–18.5% | 15.2–18.9% | 14.8–19.3% | 14.2–20.1% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.0% | 12.7–15.4% | 12.3–15.8% | 12.0–16.2% | 11.4–16.9% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.4–9.6% | 7.1–9.9% | 6.9–10.2% | 6.4–10.8% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.0% | 2.4–4.2% | 2.3–4.4% | 2.0–4.8% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.7% | 0.4–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 29–32 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 14–16 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 | 10–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 25% | 97% | |
| 30 | 26% | 72% | Median |
| 31 | 29% | 46% | |
| 32 | 10% | 16% | |
| 33 | 4% | 6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 9% | 96% | |
| 15 | 38% | 87% | Median |
| 16 | 35% | 48% | |
| 17 | 10% | 13% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 13% | 96% | |
| 15 | 32% | 83% | |
| 16 | 41% | 51% | Median |
| 17 | 8% | 10% | |
| 18 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 12% | 94% | |
| 12 | 38% | 82% | Median |
| 13 | 25% | 44% | |
| 14 | 17% | 19% | |
| 15 | 2% | 3% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 65% | 93% | Median |
| 8 | 16% | 28% | |
| 9 | 11% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 29–32 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 29 | 25% | 97% | |
| 30 | 26% | 72% | Median |
| 31 | 29% | 46% | |
| 32 | 10% | 16% | |
| 33 | 4% | 6% | |
| 34 | 2% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 98.9% | |
| 7 | 65% | 93% | Median |
| 8 | 16% | 28% | |
| 9 | 11% | 11% | |
| 10 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop–Fiducial
- Commissioner(s): LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio
- Fieldwork period: 24–25 August 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1073
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.01%