Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for Le Point, 31 August–1 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 30.3% | 28.8–31.8% | 28.4–32.3% | 28.0–32.7% | 27.3–33.4% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 18.9% | 17.7–20.3% | 17.3–20.7% | 17.0–21.0% | 16.4–21.6% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 16.3% | 15.2–17.6% | 14.8–18.0% | 14.5–18.3% | 14.0–18.9% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.3% | 10.3–12.4% | 10.0–12.7% | 9.8–13.0% | 9.3–13.5% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.9% | 8.0–9.9% | 7.8–10.2% | 7.6–10.5% | 7.1–11.0% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 3.0–4.3% | 2.9–4.5% | 2.8–4.7% | 2.5–5.0% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 3.0–4.2% | 2.8–4.4% | 2.7–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.9% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.3–3.2% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.1% | 1.1–2.2% | 1.1–2.4% | 0.9–2.6% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 28 | 27–30 | 27–30 | 27–31 | 26–32 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–19 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 9–12 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 32% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 23% | 67% | Median |
| 29 | 29% | 44% | |
| 30 | 11% | 15% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 4% | 98% | |
| 17 | 27% | 94% | |
| 18 | 28% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 33% | 39% | |
| 20 | 4% | 6% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.4% | 99.8% | |
| 14 | 18% | 98% | |
| 15 | 28% | 81% | |
| 16 | 35% | 52% | Median |
| 17 | 15% | 17% | |
| 18 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 9 | 6% | 99.5% | |
| 10 | 34% | 93% | |
| 11 | 47% | 59% | Median |
| 12 | 12% | 12% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 45% | 89% | Median |
| 9 | 35% | 44% | |
| 10 | 9% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 28 | 0% | 27–30 | 27–30 | 27–31 | 26–32 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 26 | 1.3% | 99.9% | |
| 27 | 32% | 98.6% | |
| 28 | 23% | 67% | Median |
| 29 | 29% | 44% | |
| 30 | 11% | 15% | |
| 31 | 2% | 4% | |
| 32 | 2% | 2% | |
| 33 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 34 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 11% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 45% | 89% | Median |
| 9 | 35% | 44% | |
| 10 | 9% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.4% | |
| 4 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Cluster17
- Commissioner(s): Le Point
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–1 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1506
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.36%