Opinion Poll by Ipsos for Le Parisien, 31 August–2 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.7% | 33.2–36.3% | 32.7–36.8% | 32.4–37.2% | 31.6–38.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 19.6% | 18.4–21.0% | 18.0–21.4% | 17.7–21.7% | 17.1–22.4% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.7% | 14.5–17.0% | 14.2–17.3% | 13.9–17.6% | 13.4–18.3% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.7–9.5% | 7.4–9.8% | 7.2–10.0% | 6.8–10.5% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.0–8.7% | 6.7–9.0% | 6.5–9.3% | 6.2–9.7% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 3.9–5.3% | 3.7–5.5% | 3.6–5.7% | 3.3–6.1% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.3–4.1% | 2.1–4.4% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.9% | 2.4–3.6% | 2.3–3.7% | 2.2–3.9% | 2.0–4.2% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.7–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.4% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–34 | 31–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 | 16–21 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 11% | 95% | |
| 32 | 25% | 84% | |
| 33 | 40% | 59% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 19% | |
| 35 | 4% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 17 | 21% | 97% | |
| 18 | 39% | 76% | Median |
| 19 | 25% | 37% | |
| 20 | 9% | 12% | |
| 21 | 2% | 3% | |
| 22 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 17% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 31% | 82% | |
| 15 | 43% | 51% | Median |
| 16 | 6% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 3% | 100% | |
| 7 | 26% | 97% | |
| 8 | 53% | 71% | Median |
| 9 | 18% | 18% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 19% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 55% | 80% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 26% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 84% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 16% | |
| 2 | 0% | 16% | |
| 3 | 0% | 16% | |
| 4 | 7% | 16% | |
| 5 | 9% | 9% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–34 | 31–35 | 30–35 | 29–36 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–9 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 3% | 98% | |
| 31 | 11% | 95% | |
| 32 | 25% | 84% | |
| 33 | 40% | 59% | Median |
| 34 | 13% | 19% | |
| 35 | 4% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 2% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 6 | 19% | 99.4% | |
| 7 | 55% | 80% | Median |
| 8 | 25% | 26% | |
| 9 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): Le Parisien
- Fieldwork period: 31 August–2 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1503
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.62%