Opinion Poll by OpinionWay for Le Journal du Dimanche, 2–3 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.0% | 32.0–36.1% | 31.5–36.6% | 31.0–37.1% | 30.1–38.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 18.3% | 16.7–20.0% | 16.3–20.5% | 15.9–20.9% | 15.2–21.8% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.2–18.4% | 14.8–18.9% | 14.4–19.3% | 13.7–20.1% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.7–13.5% | 10.3–13.9% | 10.0–14.3% | 9.4–15.0% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.7% | 7.6–10.0% | 7.3–10.4% | 7.0–10.7% | 6.5–11.4% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.9–4.6% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.6–5.1% | 2.3–5.5% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.5% | 1.9–3.7% | 1.8–3.9% | 1.5–4.3% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 31 | 29–33 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 | 14–20 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 | 8–14 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 14% | 96% | |
| 30 | 19% | 82% | |
| 31 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 32 | 21% | 37% | |
| 33 | 11% | 16% | |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 5% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 18% | 94% | |
| 16 | 22% | 77% | |
| 17 | 31% | 54% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 23% | |
| 19 | 4% | 4% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 13 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 27% | 91% | |
| 15 | 37% | 64% | Median |
| 16 | 16% | 27% | |
| 17 | 9% | 11% | |
| 18 | 2% | 2% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 8% | 99.0% | |
| 10 | 33% | 91% | |
| 11 | 38% | 58% | Median |
| 12 | 17% | 20% | |
| 13 | 3% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 37% | 92% | |
| 8 | 33% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 20% | 22% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 29–33 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 27–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 29 | 14% | 96% | |
| 30 | 19% | 82% | |
| 31 | 25% | 62% | Median |
| 32 | 21% | 37% | |
| 33 | 11% | 16% | |
| 34 | 4% | 5% | |
| 35 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 37% | 92% | |
| 8 | 33% | 55% | Median |
| 9 | 20% | 22% | |
| 10 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): Le Journal du Dimanche
- Fieldwork period: 2–3 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 909
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.75%