Opinion Poll by Ipsos for CEVIPOF, Fondation Jean Jaurès, Institut Montaigne and Le Monde, 3–9 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.3–34.3% | 32.1–34.6% | 31.8–34.8% | 31.4–35.3% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 19.6% | 18.8–20.5% | 18.6–20.7% | 18.4–20.9% | 18.0–21.3% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.7% | 14.9–16.4% | 14.7–16.7% | 14.5–16.9% | 14.2–17.2% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.7% | 10.0–11.4% | 9.9–11.5% | 9.7–11.7% | 9.4–12.0% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.8–7.9% | 6.7–8.1% | 6.6–8.2% | 6.3–8.5% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.9–4.7% | 3.7–4.8% | 3.6–4.9% | 3.5–5.2% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.7–4.5% | 3.6–4.6% | 3.4–4.7% | 3.3–4.9% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.3–3.0% | 2.2–3.1% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.7–2.3% | 1.6–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.7% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.4–0.7% | 0.3–0.7% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–33 | 30–33 | 30–33 | 29–34 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 14–15 | 14–16 | 13–16 | 13–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 8–11 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 19% | 98% | |
| 31 | 28% | 80% | |
| 32 | 29% | 52% | Median |
| 33 | 23% | 23% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 17 | 28% | 99.9% | |
| 18 | 39% | 72% | Median |
| 19 | 24% | 33% | |
| 20 | 7% | 9% | |
| 21 | 1.2% | 1.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 5% | 100% | |
| 14 | 36% | 95% | |
| 15 | 53% | 60% | Median |
| 16 | 5% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 20% | 98% | |
| 10 | 67% | 78% | Median |
| 11 | 11% | 11% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 32% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 66% | 68% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 3% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–33 | 30–33 | 30–33 | 29–34 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 2% | 100% | |
| 30 | 19% | 98% | |
| 31 | 28% | 80% | |
| 32 | 29% | 52% | Median |
| 33 | 23% | 23% | |
| 34 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 32% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 66% | 68% | Median |
| 8 | 2% | 2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ipsos
- Commissioner(s): CEVIPOF, Fondation Jean Jaurès, Institut Montaigne and Le Monde
- Fieldwork period: 3–9 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 3813
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.86%