Opinion Poll by OpinionWay for Les Echos and Radio Classique, 8–9 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 33.8% | 31.9–35.9% | 31.3–36.5% | 30.8–37.0% | 29.9–38.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 18.7% | 17.1–20.4% | 16.6–20.9% | 16.3–21.3% | 15.5–22.2% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.0% | 13.5–16.6% | 13.1–17.0% | 12.8–17.4% | 12.1–18.2% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 10.3% | 9.1–11.7% | 8.7–12.1% | 8.5–12.4% | 7.9–13.1% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.9% | 8.8–11.3% | 8.4–11.7% | 8.2–12.1% | 7.6–12.7% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–5.0% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–6.0% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.6–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.6% | 2.0–5.1% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.5–3.5% | 1.3–3.9% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.7% | 0.8–3.1% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 27–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 17 | 15–19 | 15–19 | 15–20 | 14–21 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 8–11 | 8–11 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 6% | 97% | |
| 30 | 18% | 91% | |
| 31 | 12% | 72% | |
| 32 | 27% | 60% | Median |
| 33 | 20% | 33% | |
| 34 | 5% | 13% | |
| 35 | 8% | 9% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 10% | 99.1% | |
| 16 | 24% | 89% | |
| 17 | 31% | 65% | Median |
| 18 | 18% | 33% | |
| 19 | 12% | 15% | |
| 20 | 2% | 3% | |
| 21 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 11% | 97% | |
| 13 | 29% | 86% | |
| 14 | 31% | 57% | Median |
| 15 | 19% | 26% | |
| 16 | 6% | 7% | |
| 17 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 14% | 97% | |
| 9 | 49% | 83% | Median |
| 10 | 24% | 34% | |
| 11 | 9% | 10% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 33% | 93% | |
| 9 | 31% | 60% | Median |
| 10 | 25% | 29% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 5% | 8% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–35 | 27–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–10 | 7–10 | 7–11 | 7–12 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.5% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 3% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 6% | 97% | |
| 30 | 18% | 91% | |
| 31 | 12% | 72% | |
| 32 | 27% | 60% | Median |
| 33 | 20% | 33% | |
| 34 | 5% | 13% | |
| 35 | 8% | 9% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 7% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 33% | 93% | |
| 9 | 31% | 60% | Median |
| 10 | 25% | 29% | |
| 11 | 4% | 4% | |
| 12 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 5% | 8% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): Les Echos and Radio Classique
- Fieldwork period: 8–9 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 916
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.78%