Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, 8–10 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.0% | 32.3–35.8% | 31.8–36.3% | 31.4–36.7% | 30.5–37.6% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 18.2% | 16.8–19.7% | 16.4–20.1% | 16.1–20.5% | 15.5–21.2% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.4–18.1% | 15.0–18.5% | 14.7–18.9% | 14.1–19.6% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 8.0–10.2% | 7.8–10.5% | 7.5–10.8% | 7.1–11.3% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.3% | 7.0–9.6% | 6.8–9.9% | 6.3–10.4% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.3–5.9% | 4.1–6.2% | 3.9–6.4% | 3.6–6.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.7–4.1% | 2.6–4.3% | 2.4–4.5% | 2.2–4.9% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.7–3.5% | 1.5–3.9% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.1% | 1.3–3.5% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–33 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–34 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 17 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–20 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 8 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 96% | |
| 30 | 14% | 93% | |
| 31 | 21% | 79% | |
| 32 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 33 | 39% | 43% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 14 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 15 | 17% | 97% | |
| 16 | 22% | 81% | |
| 17 | 51% | 59% | Median |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 1.1% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.1% | |
| 14 | 19% | 97% | |
| 15 | 34% | 78% | Median |
| 16 | 33% | 44% | |
| 17 | 4% | 11% | |
| 18 | 6% | 7% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 19% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 53% | 80% | Median |
| 9 | 12% | 27% | |
| 10 | 15% | 16% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 85% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 11% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 46% | |
| 3 | 0% | 46% | |
| 4 | 22% | 46% | |
| 5 | 24% | 24% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–33 | 29–33 | 28–34 | 28–34 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 28 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 29 | 3% | 96% | |
| 30 | 14% | 93% | |
| 31 | 21% | 79% | |
| 32 | 15% | 59% | Median |
| 33 | 39% | 43% | |
| 34 | 4% | 4% | |
| 35 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 7 | 85% | 96% | Median |
| 8 | 6% | 11% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 54% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 46% | |
| 2 | 0% | 46% | |
| 3 | 0% | 46% | |
| 4 | 22% | 46% | |
| 5 | 24% | 24% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): M6 and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 8–10 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1210
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.54%