Opinion Poll by OpinionWay for CNews, 9–10 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 32.9% | 31.0–35.0% | 30.4–35.6% | 29.9–36.1% | 29.0–37.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 23.3% | 21.5–25.1% | 21.0–25.7% | 20.6–26.1% | 19.8–27.1% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 16.7% | 15.2–18.4% | 14.8–18.8% | 14.4–19.3% | 13.7–20.1% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.7% | 7.3–11.1% | 6.8–11.7% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.1–8.4% | 5.9–8.7% | 5.6–9.0% | 5.2–9.6% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.3–3.8% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.3% | 1.8–4.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.6–3.3% | 1.5–3.5% | 1.3–3.9% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.7% | 1.4–2.9% | 1.2–3.1% | 1.1–3.5% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% | 0.3–1.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 29–32 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 21 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 19–23 | 18–24 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 14–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 12–18 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 4–9 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 16% | 94% | |
| 30 | 35% | 78% | Median |
| 31 | 26% | 43% | |
| 32 | 8% | 17% | |
| 33 | 7% | 9% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0.6% | 99.8% | |
| 19 | 11% | 99.2% | |
| 20 | 22% | 88% | |
| 21 | 40% | 66% | Median |
| 22 | 15% | 26% | |
| 23 | 8% | 10% | |
| 24 | 2% | 2% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 27 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 1.1% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 8% | 98.8% | |
| 14 | 23% | 91% | |
| 15 | 44% | 68% | Median |
| 16 | 18% | 24% | |
| 17 | 5% | 6% | |
| 18 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 19% | 96% | |
| 8 | 47% | 78% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 31% | |
| 10 | 9% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.7% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 99.7% | |
| 5 | 9% | 99.4% | |
| 6 | 31% | 90% | |
| 7 | 48% | 59% | Median |
| 8 | 9% | 11% | |
| 9 | 2% | 2% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 29–32 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–10 | 6–10 | 6–11 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 4% | 98% | |
| 29 | 16% | 94% | |
| 30 | 35% | 78% | Median |
| 31 | 26% | 43% | |
| 32 | 8% | 17% | |
| 33 | 7% | 9% | |
| 34 | 1.4% | 2% | |
| 35 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 19% | 96% | |
| 8 | 47% | 78% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 31% | |
| 10 | 9% | 9% | |
| 11 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): CNews
- Fieldwork period: 9–10 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 911
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.74%