Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for Politico, 15–16 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 30.8% | 29.3–32.3% | 28.9–32.7% | 28.5–33.1% | 27.8–33.8% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 19.5% | 18.2–20.8% | 17.9–21.2% | 17.6–21.5% | 17.0–22.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 17.5% | 16.3–18.8% | 16.0–19.1% | 15.7–19.5% | 15.2–20.1% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.3–12.3% | 10.0–12.6% | 9.8–12.9% | 9.3–13.4% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.7% | 8.8–10.7% | 8.5–11.0% | 8.3–11.2% | 7.9–11.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–3.9% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.5–4.3% | 2.3–4.6% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.7% | 2.2–3.3% | 2.1–3.4% | 2.0–3.6% | 1.8–3.9% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.0% | 1.9–3.2% | 1.8–3.4% | 1.6–3.7% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.0–3.0% | 1.8–3.1% | 1.8–3.3% | 1.6–3.6% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.9% | 0.3–1.0% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 27 | 27–30 | 27–30 | 27–30 | 26–31 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 17–19 | 16–20 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 15–17 | 15–18 | 14–18 | 14–18 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–11 | 9–12 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 52% | 98% | Median |
| 28 | 17% | 46% | |
| 29 | 14% | 29% | |
| 30 | 13% | 15% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 17 | 11% | 98% | |
| 18 | 74% | 86% | Median |
| 19 | 11% | 13% | |
| 20 | 2% | 2% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 3% | 100% | |
| 15 | 20% | 97% | |
| 16 | 30% | 77% | Median |
| 17 | 38% | 48% | |
| 18 | 9% | 9% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 9 | 18% | 99.6% | |
| 10 | 54% | 81% | Median |
| 11 | 26% | 28% | |
| 12 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 27% | 98% | |
| 9 | 67% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 27 | 0% | 27–30 | 27–30 | 27–30 | 26–31 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 7–10 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 26 | 2% | 99.6% | |
| 27 | 52% | 98% | Median |
| 28 | 17% | 46% | |
| 29 | 14% | 29% | |
| 30 | 13% | 15% | |
| 31 | 2% | 2% | |
| 32 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 33 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 27% | 98% | |
| 9 | 67% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 3% | 3% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Cluster17
- Commissioner(s): Politico
- Fieldwork period: 15–16 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1583
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.69%