Opinion Poll by YouGov for Le HuffPost, 17–21 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.4% | 32.2–36.7% | 31.6–37.4% | 31.0–37.9% | 30.0–39.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 17.8% | 16.1–19.8% | 15.6–20.3% | 15.2–20.8% | 14.4–21.7% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 16.9% | 15.2–18.7% | 14.7–19.3% | 14.3–19.8% | 13.5–20.7% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.8% | 7.6–10.3% | 7.3–10.8% | 7.0–11.1% | 6.4–11.9% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 5.8–8.3% | 5.5–8.7% | 5.3–9.0% | 4.8–9.7% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.5–6.6% | 4.2–7.0% | 4.0–7.3% | 3.6–7.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.5–4.8% | 2.3–5.1% | 2.0–5.6% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.0–3.9% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.5–2.9% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.3–3.4% | 1.0–3.9% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% | 0.4–2.3% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.4% | 0.1–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 15 | 14–18 | 14–20 | 13–20 | 13–21 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 14 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 12–19 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 7 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 0–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 96% | |
| 30 | 15% | 93% | |
| 31 | 10% | 78% | |
| 32 | 33% | 68% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 36% | |
| 34 | 15% | 21% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 4% | 99.7% | |
| 14 | 12% | 96% | |
| 15 | 45% | 84% | Median |
| 16 | 12% | 39% | |
| 17 | 6% | 27% | |
| 18 | 11% | 21% | |
| 19 | 5% | 10% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 13 | 3% | 98.9% | |
| 14 | 46% | 96% | Median |
| 15 | 24% | 50% | |
| 16 | 12% | 25% | |
| 17 | 9% | 13% | |
| 18 | 3% | 4% | |
| 19 | 1.2% | 1.5% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 17% | 95% | |
| 8 | 45% | 78% | Median |
| 9 | 29% | 33% | |
| 10 | 2% | 4% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 98.7% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 98.7% | |
| 5 | 10% | 98% | |
| 6 | 21% | 87% | |
| 7 | 47% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 19% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 0.6% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 68% | |
| 2 | 0% | 68% | |
| 3 | 0% | 68% | |
| 4 | 9% | 68% | |
| 5 | 51% | 59% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 2% | |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 29–35 | 28–36 | 27–37 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 | 5–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.9% | 99.8% | |
| 28 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 96% | |
| 30 | 15% | 93% | |
| 31 | 10% | 78% | |
| 32 | 33% | 68% | Median |
| 33 | 15% | 36% | |
| 34 | 15% | 21% | |
| 35 | 3% | 6% | |
| 36 | 2% | 4% | |
| 37 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 40 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 4% | 99.0% | |
| 7 | 17% | 95% | |
| 8 | 45% | 78% | Median |
| 9 | 29% | 33% | |
| 10 | 2% | 4% | |
| 11 | 2% | 2% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 68% | |
| 2 | 0% | 68% | |
| 3 | 0% | 68% | |
| 4 | 9% | 68% | |
| 5 | 51% | 59% | Median |
| 6 | 8% | 9% | |
| 7 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): Le HuffPost
- Fieldwork period: 17–21 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 724
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.37%