Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, 22–24 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.3% | 33.6–37.1% | 33.1–37.6% | 32.7–38.1% | 31.9–39.0% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 17.3% | 16.0–18.8% | 15.6–19.2% | 15.3–19.6% | 14.7–20.3% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 15.5% | 14.2–16.9% | 13.9–17.3% | 13.5–17.7% | 13.0–18.4% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.3–10.5% | 8.0–10.8% | 7.8–11.1% | 7.4–11.7% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.5–9.6% | 7.3–9.9% | 7.0–10.2% | 6.6–10.8% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.1% | 4.2–6.3% | 4.0–6.6% | 3.7–7.0% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.9–4.3% | 2.7–4.5% | 2.6–4.7% | 2.3–5.1% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.3% | 1.9–3.0% | 1.7–3.2% | 1.6–3.4% | 1.4–3.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.8% | 0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 29–36 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 17 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 13–18 | 13–18 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 12–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–10 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 6% | 96% | |
| 31 | 4% | 90% | |
| 32 | 22% | 85% | |
| 33 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 34 | 40% | 45% | |
| 35 | 4% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 12% | 97% | |
| 15 | 14% | 84% | |
| 16 | 13% | 71% | |
| 17 | 54% | 57% | Median |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 12 | 10% | 99.7% | |
| 13 | 52% | 90% | Median |
| 14 | 18% | 38% | |
| 15 | 16% | 20% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 9% | 98% | |
| 8 | 19% | 89% | |
| 9 | 57% | 70% | Median |
| 10 | 13% | 13% | |
| 11 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 34% | 94% | |
| 8 | 55% | 59% | Median |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 21% | 48% | |
| 5 | 25% | 27% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.5% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.5% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 29–36 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 29 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 30 | 6% | 96% | |
| 31 | 4% | 90% | |
| 32 | 22% | 85% | |
| 33 | 18% | 63% | Median |
| 34 | 40% | 45% | |
| 35 | 4% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.8% | 1.0% | |
| 37 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 6% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 34% | 94% | |
| 8 | 55% | 59% | Median |
| 9 | 4% | 4% | |
| 10 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 52% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 48% | |
| 2 | 0% | 48% | |
| 3 | 0% | 48% | |
| 4 | 21% | 48% | |
| 5 | 25% | 27% | |
| 6 | 2% | 2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): M6 and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 22–24 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1200
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.78%