Opinion Poll by Ifop–Fiducial for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio, 25–29 September 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 33.8% | 32.0–35.8% | 31.4–36.3% | 31.0–36.8% | 30.1–37.7% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 21.4% | 19.8–23.1% | 19.4–23.6% | 19.0–24.0% | 18.2–24.8% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.9% | 14.5–17.5% | 14.2–17.9% | 13.8–18.3% | 13.2–19.1% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.4% | 7.3–9.6% | 7.1–9.9% | 6.8–10.2% | 6.4–10.8% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.4% | 6.4–8.5% | 6.2–8.9% | 5.9–9.2% | 5.5–9.7% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.4% | 3.7–5.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.3–5.8% | 3.0–6.3% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–4.9% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.3–3.6% | 2.1–3.8% | 2.0–4.0% | 1.7–4.4% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.2% | 0.8–1.7% | 0.7–1.9% | 0.7–2.0% | 0.5–2.3% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 28–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 19 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 18–21 | 17–22 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 7% | 96% | |
| 31 | 4% | 88% | |
| 32 | 15% | 84% | |
| 33 | 56% | 69% | Median |
| 34 | 8% | 13% | |
| 35 | 5% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 2% | 99.7% | |
| 18 | 10% | 98% | |
| 19 | 60% | 88% | Median |
| 20 | 11% | 28% | |
| 21 | 15% | 17% | |
| 22 | 2% | 2% | |
| 23 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 13% | 99.0% | |
| 14 | 19% | 86% | |
| 15 | 61% | 67% | Median |
| 16 | 5% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 18 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 67% | 95% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 28% | |
| 9 | 6% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 7% | 99.9% | |
| 6 | 17% | 93% | |
| 7 | 66% | 76% | Median |
| 8 | 10% | 11% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 91% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 9% | |
| 2 | 0% | 9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 9% | |
| 4 | 4% | 9% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 30–34 | 30–35 | 29–35 | 28–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 7–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 6–10 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.8% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.1% | |
| 30 | 7% | 96% | |
| 31 | 4% | 88% | |
| 32 | 15% | 84% | |
| 33 | 56% | 69% | Median |
| 34 | 8% | 13% | |
| 35 | 5% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 6 | 5% | 99.8% | |
| 7 | 67% | 95% | Median |
| 8 | 21% | 28% | |
| 9 | 6% | 6% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.8% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop–Fiducial
- Commissioner(s): LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio
- Fieldwork period: 25–29 September 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1029
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.49%