Opinion Poll by Odoxa for Le Nouvel Obs and Public Sénat, 24 September–7 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 37.1% | 36.2–38.1% | 35.9–38.3% | 35.7–38.6% | 35.2–39.0% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 18.1% | 17.3–18.8% | 17.1–19.1% | 16.9–19.3% | 16.6–19.6% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 16.3% | 15.6–17.0% | 15.4–17.3% | 15.2–17.4% | 14.9–17.8% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.6% | 9.1–10.2% | 8.9–10.4% | 8.8–10.5% | 8.5–10.8% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 6.8% | 6.3–7.3% | 6.2–7.5% | 6.1–7.6% | 5.9–7.8% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.5% | 4.1–4.9% | 4.0–5.1% | 3.9–5.2% | 3.7–5.4% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.7–3.4% | 2.7–3.5% | 2.6–3.6% | 2.4–3.8% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.8–2.3% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.6% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.8–2.3% | 1.7–2.4% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.6% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–0.7% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.4–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 35 | 33–35 | 33–35 | 33–35 | 33–36 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 17 | 16–17 | 16–17 | 16–18 | 15–18 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 15 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–10 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 33 | 12% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 34% | 87% | |
| 35 | 52% | 53% | Median |
| 36 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 31% | 98.7% | |
| 17 | 65% | 68% | Median |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 14 | 19% | 99.6% | |
| 15 | 57% | 81% | Median |
| 16 | 24% | 24% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 26% | 100% | |
| 9 | 73% | 74% | Median |
| 10 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 39% | 100% | |
| 6 | 58% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 35 | 0% | 33–35 | 33–35 | 33–35 | 33–36 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 5–7 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0% | 100% | |
| 30 | 0% | 100% | |
| 31 | 0% | 100% | |
| 32 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 33 | 12% | 99.5% | |
| 34 | 34% | 87% | |
| 35 | 52% | 53% | Median |
| 36 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 39% | 100% | |
| 6 | 58% | 61% | Median |
| 7 | 3% | 3% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 88% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 12% | |
| 2 | 0% | 12% | |
| 3 | 0% | 12% | |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Odoxa
- Commissioner(s): Le Nouvel Obs and Public Sénat
- Fieldwork period: 24 September–7 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 4285
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.79%