Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, 5–8 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 36.1% | 34.3–37.9% | 33.8–38.4% | 33.4–38.8% | 32.6–39.7% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 18.1% | 16.7–19.6% | 16.3–20.0% | 16.0–20.3% | 15.4–21.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 15.6% | 14.3–17.0% | 13.9–17.4% | 13.6–17.7% | 13.0–18.4% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.2–10.3% | 7.9–10.6% | 7.7–10.9% | 7.2–11.5% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.2% | 7.2–9.3% | 7.0–9.6% | 6.7–9.9% | 6.3–10.4% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.7% | 4.0–5.5% | 3.8–5.8% | 3.6–6.0% | 3.3–6.5% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.1–4.7% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.7–2.8% | 1.6–3.0% | 1.5–3.2% | 1.3–3.5% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% | 1.2–3.3% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–2.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 34 | 30–35 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 17 | 15–18 | 14–19 | 14–19 | 14–19 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 6–11 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 31 | 6% | 87% | |
| 32 | 16% | 81% | |
| 33 | 15% | 65% | |
| 34 | 37% | 50% | Median |
| 35 | 8% | 13% | |
| 36 | 4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 14 | 6% | 99.7% | |
| 15 | 13% | 94% | |
| 16 | 25% | 81% | |
| 17 | 34% | 56% | Median |
| 18 | 17% | 22% | |
| 19 | 5% | 5% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.3% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 12 | 7% | 99.4% | |
| 13 | 25% | 92% | |
| 14 | 37% | 67% | Median |
| 15 | 21% | 30% | |
| 16 | 7% | 8% | |
| 17 | 2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 25% | 98% | |
| 8 | 37% | 74% | Median |
| 9 | 31% | 36% | |
| 10 | 5% | 5% | |
| 11 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 61% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 24% | |
| 9 | 6% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 47% | |
| 2 | 0% | 47% | |
| 3 | 0% | 47% | |
| 4 | 21% | 47% | |
| 5 | 25% | 25% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 34 | 0% | 30–35 | 30–35 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–9 | 6–9 | 5–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.6% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 12% | 99.3% | |
| 31 | 6% | 87% | |
| 32 | 16% | 81% | |
| 33 | 15% | 65% | |
| 34 | 37% | 50% | Median |
| 35 | 8% | 13% | |
| 36 | 4% | 5% | |
| 37 | 0.7% | 1.1% | |
| 38 | 0.4% | 0.5% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 6 | 13% | 98.6% | |
| 7 | 61% | 86% | Median |
| 8 | 18% | 24% | |
| 9 | 6% | 7% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 53% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 47% | |
| 2 | 0% | 47% | |
| 3 | 0% | 47% | |
| 4 | 21% | 47% | |
| 5 | 25% | 25% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): M6 and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 5–8 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1201
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.55%