Opinion Poll by Ifop–Fiducial for LCI and Sud Radio, 12–14 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.2% | 32.3–36.0% | 31.8–36.6% | 31.4–37.0% | 30.5–38.0% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 17.4% | 16.0–19.0% | 15.6–19.4% | 15.3–19.8% | 14.6–20.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 16.6% | 15.2–18.2% | 14.9–18.6% | 14.5–19.0% | 13.9–19.7% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.8% | 12.5–15.2% | 12.1–15.6% | 11.8–16.0% | 11.3–16.7% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.8% | 6.8–8.9% | 6.6–9.3% | 6.4–9.6% | 5.9–10.1% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.5–3.8% | 2.3–4.0% | 2.2–4.2% | 1.9–4.6% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.9–3.5% | 1.8–3.7% | 1.6–4.1% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.5–3.0% | 1.4–3.2% | 1.2–3.5% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.7% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.1–0.9% | 0.1–1.2% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.6% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.8% | 0.1–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–33 | 30–34 | 29–34 | 29–35 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 16 | 15–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–19 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 14 | 13–16 | 13–17 | 13–17 | 13–19 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 14% | 96% | |
| 31 | 13% | 82% | |
| 32 | 49% | 69% | Median |
| 33 | 11% | 20% | |
| 34 | 8% | 9% | |
| 35 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 1.0% | 99.6% | |
| 14 | 8% | 98.6% | |
| 15 | 18% | 91% | |
| 16 | 27% | 73% | Median |
| 17 | 43% | 46% | |
| 18 | 2% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 20 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 13 | 14% | 99.5% | |
| 14 | 58% | 85% | Median |
| 15 | 11% | 27% | |
| 16 | 11% | 17% | |
| 17 | 4% | 6% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 2% | |
| 19 | 1.4% | 1.5% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 11 | 16% | 97% | |
| 12 | 53% | 81% | Median |
| 13 | 13% | 28% | |
| 14 | 14% | 15% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 16 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 34% | |
| 8 | 18% | 19% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–33 | 30–34 | 29–34 | 29–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 14% | 96% | |
| 31 | 13% | 82% | |
| 32 | 49% | 69% | Median |
| 33 | 11% | 20% | |
| 34 | 8% | 9% | |
| 35 | 1.2% | 1.3% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 3% | 100% | |
| 6 | 63% | 97% | Median |
| 7 | 14% | 34% | |
| 8 | 18% | 19% | |
| 9 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop–Fiducial
- Commissioner(s): LCI and Sud Radio
- Fieldwork period: 12–14 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1089
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.43%