Opinion Poll by OpinionWay for Les Echos and Radio Classique, 13–14 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.6% | 33.6–37.6% | 33.0–38.2% | 32.5–38.7% | 31.6–39.7% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 14.8% | 13.4–16.4% | 13.0–16.8% | 12.6–17.2% | 12.0–18.0% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 14.7% | 13.2–16.2% | 12.9–16.7% | 12.5–17.1% | 11.9–17.9% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 14.7% | 13.2–16.2% | 12.9–16.7% | 12.5–17.1% | 11.9–17.9% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 8.0% | 6.9–9.2% | 6.6–9.6% | 6.4–9.9% | 5.9–10.5% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.5% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.4–3.9% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.1–4.3% | 1.8–4.8% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.2% | 1.7–3.4% | 1.6–3.6% | 1.3–4.0% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.4–3.0% | 1.3–3.2% | 1.1–3.6% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–35 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–37 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 11–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 13 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 8% | 97% | |
| 32 | 25% | 88% | |
| 33 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 34 | 22% | 47% | |
| 35 | 16% | 25% | |
| 36 | 5% | 9% | |
| 37 | 4% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 14% | 97% | |
| 13 | 44% | 83% | Median |
| 14 | 26% | 39% | |
| 15 | 10% | 14% | |
| 16 | 3% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 7% | 99.6% | |
| 12 | 13% | 92% | |
| 13 | 41% | 79% | Median |
| 14 | 13% | 38% | |
| 15 | 19% | 26% | |
| 16 | 6% | 7% | |
| 17 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 24% | 98% | |
| 13 | 37% | 74% | Median |
| 14 | 16% | 37% | |
| 15 | 18% | 21% | |
| 16 | 2% | 3% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 16% | 98% | |
| 7 | 49% | 82% | Median |
| 8 | 29% | 33% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 7% | 8% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–35 | 31–36 | 30–37 | 29–37 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 0% | 6–8 | 6–8 | 6–9 | 5–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 0.9% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 2% | 98.9% | |
| 31 | 8% | 97% | |
| 32 | 25% | 88% | |
| 33 | 16% | 63% | Median |
| 34 | 22% | 47% | |
| 35 | 16% | 25% | |
| 36 | 5% | 9% | |
| 37 | 4% | 4% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 1.5% | 100% | |
| 6 | 16% | 98% | |
| 7 | 49% | 82% | Median |
| 8 | 29% | 33% | |
| 9 | 4% | 5% | |
| 10 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 8% | |
| 4 | 7% | 8% | |
| 5 | 1.4% | 1.4% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): Les Echos and Radio Classique
- Fieldwork period: 13–14 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 928
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.80%