Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for Le Point, 14–15 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.1% | 32.4–35.8% | 31.9–36.3% | 31.5–36.7% | 30.7–37.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 19.6% | 18.2–21.1% | 17.8–21.5% | 17.5–21.9% | 16.9–22.6% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.8% | 12.6–15.1% | 12.2–15.4% | 12.0–15.8% | 11.4–16.4% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 12.1% | 11.0–13.4% | 10.7–13.7% | 10.4–14.0% | 9.9–14.6% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 9.2% | 8.3–10.4% | 8.0–10.7% | 7.8–11.0% | 7.3–11.5% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.4–4.8% | 3.2–5.1% | 3.1–5.3% | 2.8–5.7% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.2% | 1.9–3.4% | 1.8–3.6% | 1.6–3.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.2–3.2% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.5–2.5% | 1.4–2.7% | 1.3–2.8% | 1.1–3.1% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 31 | 30–32 | 29–33 | 29–34 | 28–34 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 18 | 17–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 12 | 11–13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–10 | 7–10 | 7–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 30 | 16% | 93% | |
| 31 | 34% | 77% | Median |
| 32 | 33% | 43% | |
| 33 | 7% | 10% | |
| 34 | 3% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 5% | 98.9% | |
| 17 | 31% | 94% | |
| 18 | 42% | 64% | Median |
| 19 | 10% | 21% | |
| 20 | 11% | 12% | |
| 21 | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 11 | 21% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 50% | 78% | Median |
| 13 | 22% | 28% | |
| 14 | 6% | 7% | |
| 15 | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 20% | 97% | |
| 11 | 42% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 30% | 34% | |
| 13 | 5% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 7 | 13% | 99.6% | |
| 8 | 46% | 87% | Median |
| 9 | 32% | 40% | |
| 10 | 8% | 8% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 4% | 6% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 30–32 | 29–33 | 29–34 | 28–34 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 0% | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–13 | 9–13 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 1.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 5% | 98.5% | |
| 30 | 16% | 93% | |
| 31 | 34% | 77% | Median |
| 32 | 33% | 43% | |
| 33 | 7% | 10% | |
| 34 | 3% | 3% | |
| 35 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 20% | 97% | |
| 11 | 42% | 77% | Median |
| 12 | 30% | 34% | |
| 13 | 5% | 5% | |
| 14 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 4% | 6% | |
| 5 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Cluster17
- Commissioner(s): Le Point
- Fieldwork period: 14–15 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1265
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.82%