Opinion Poll by YouGov for Le HuffPost, 12–15 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 36.1% | 33.8–38.5% | 33.1–39.2% | 32.5–39.8% | 31.5–40.9% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.1% | 13.5–17.0% | 13.0–17.5% | 12.6–18.0% | 11.9–18.9% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 11.9–15.3% | 11.5–15.8% | 11.1–16.3% | 10.4–17.2% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.0% | 10.5–13.8% | 10.1–14.3% | 9.8–14.7% | 9.1–15.6% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 7.6% | 6.5–9.1% | 6.1–9.5% | 5.9–9.9% | 5.3–10.6% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.7% | 4.7–7.0% | 4.4–7.4% | 4.2–7.7% | 3.8–8.4% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.5% | 2.8–4.6% | 2.5–4.9% | 2.4–5.2% | 2.1–5.8% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.8–4.3% | 1.5–4.8% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.8% | 2.1–3.8% | 1.9–4.1% | 1.8–4.3% | 1.5–4.8% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.2–1.3% | 0.1–1.6% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1–0.6% | 0.0–0.7% | 0.0–0.8% | 0.0–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–36 | 30–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–16 | 11–16 | 11–17 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 13 | 10–14 | 10–14 | 9–15 | 9–16 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 9–13 | 9–13 | 9–14 | 8–14 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 5 | 0–6 | 0–6 | 0–7 | 0–7 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98% | |
| 31 | 5% | 94% | |
| 32 | 31% | 88% | |
| 33 | 26% | 57% | Median |
| 34 | 11% | 31% | |
| 35 | 10% | 20% | |
| 36 | 8% | 11% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.5% | |
| 12 | 20% | 96% | |
| 13 | 18% | 76% | |
| 14 | 35% | 59% | Median |
| 15 | 18% | 24% | |
| 16 | 4% | 6% | |
| 17 | 1.2% | 2% | |
| 18 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 9 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 10 | 6% | 95% | |
| 11 | 11% | 90% | |
| 12 | 12% | 78% | |
| 13 | 49% | 66% | Median |
| 14 | 13% | 16% | |
| 15 | 3% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 16% | 98% | |
| 10 | 14% | 83% | |
| 11 | 40% | 68% | Median |
| 12 | 17% | 28% | |
| 13 | 8% | 11% | |
| 14 | 3% | 3% | |
| 15 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 48% | 89% | Median |
| 7 | 25% | 41% | |
| 8 | 13% | 16% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 83% | |
| 2 | 0% | 83% | |
| 3 | 0% | 83% | |
| 4 | 6% | 83% | |
| 5 | 62% | 77% | Median |
| 6 | 10% | 15% | |
| 7 | 5% | 5% | |
| 8 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–36 | 30–36 | 30–37 | 29–38 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 6 | 0% | 5–8 | 5–8 | 5–9 | 5–9 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 1.4% | 99.5% | |
| 30 | 4% | 98% | |
| 31 | 5% | 94% | |
| 32 | 31% | 88% | |
| 33 | 26% | 57% | Median |
| 34 | 11% | 31% | |
| 35 | 10% | 20% | |
| 36 | 8% | 11% | |
| 37 | 2% | 3% | |
| 38 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 39 | 0.2% | 0.4% | |
| 40 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 41 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 3 | 0% | 99.8% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 99.8% | |
| 5 | 10% | 99.6% | |
| 6 | 48% | 89% | Median |
| 7 | 25% | 41% | |
| 8 | 13% | 16% | |
| 9 | 3% | 3% | |
| 10 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 3% | |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: YouGov
- Commissioner(s): Le HuffPost
- Fieldwork period: 12–15 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 682
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.35%