Opinion Poll by ELABE for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, 14–16 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 32.4% | 30.8–34.0% | 30.4–34.5% | 30.0–34.8% | 29.3–35.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.9% | 14.8–17.2% | 14.4–17.6% | 14.1–17.9% | 13.6–18.5% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 15.8% | 14.6–17.1% | 14.3–17.4% | 14.0–17.8% | 13.5–18.4% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 14.5% | 13.4–15.7% | 13.0–16.1% | 12.8–16.4% | 12.3–17.0% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.7% | 8.8–10.8% | 8.5–11.1% | 8.3–11.3% | 7.9–11.9% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.3% | 2.8–4.0% | 2.7–4.2% | 2.5–4.4% | 2.3–4.8% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 2.6% | 2.1–3.2% | 2.0–3.4% | 1.9–3.6% | 1.7–3.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.2% | 1.8–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.6–3.1% | 1.4–3.4% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.2–2.0% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 0.9% | 0.6–1.3% | 0.6–1.4% | 0.5–1.5% | 0.4–1.7% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.6–1.2% | 0.5–1.3% | 0.5–1.4% | 0.4–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 29–33 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 | 12–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 12–17 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 13 | 12–14 | 12–14 | 11–15 | 11–15 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 28 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 29 | 32% | 93% | |
| 30 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 31 | 19% | 44% | |
| 32 | 10% | 26% | |
| 33 | 15% | 16% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 100% | |
| 13 | 10% | 97% | |
| 14 | 31% | 87% | |
| 15 | 21% | 57% | Median |
| 16 | 33% | 35% | |
| 17 | 2% | 3% | |
| 18 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 19 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 26% | 98% | |
| 14 | 31% | 72% | Median |
| 15 | 35% | 41% | |
| 16 | 5% | 6% | |
| 17 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 4% | 99.8% | |
| 12 | 20% | 96% | |
| 13 | 56% | 76% | Median |
| 14 | 16% | 20% | |
| 15 | 4% | 4% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 46% | 98% | |
| 9 | 36% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 15% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 29–33 | 28–33 | 28–33 | 27–34 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 28 | 6% | 99.1% | |
| 29 | 32% | 93% | |
| 30 | 17% | 61% | Median |
| 31 | 19% | 44% | |
| 32 | 10% | 26% | |
| 33 | 15% | 16% | |
| 34 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 7 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 8 | 46% | 98% | |
| 9 | 36% | 51% | Median |
| 10 | 14% | 15% | |
| 11 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: ELABE
- Commissioner(s): BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche
- Fieldwork period: 14–16 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1463
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.54%