Opinion Poll by Cluster17 for Politico, 19–22 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 32.3% | 30.9–33.7% | 30.5–34.1% | 30.2–34.5% | 29.6–35.2% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 18.9% | 17.8–20.2% | 17.5–20.5% | 17.2–20.8% | 16.7–21.4% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 15.3% | 14.3–16.4% | 14.0–16.8% | 13.7–17.0% | 13.2–17.6% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.7% | 10.8–12.7% | 10.5–13.0% | 10.3–13.3% | 9.9–13.8% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.2–11.0% | 8.9–11.3% | 8.7–11.5% | 8.4–12.0% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.4–4.6% | 3.2–4.7% | 3.1–4.9% | 2.9–5.2% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.7% | 2.5–3.9% | 2.4–4.0% | 2.2–4.3% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.7–2.6% | 1.6–2.8% | 1.6–2.9% | 1.4–3.1% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.6–2.5% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.5–2.8% | 1.3–3.0% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.8% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.2–1.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 28–32 | 28–32 | 28–32 | 27–33 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–15 | 12–16 | 12–16 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 9–12 | 9–13 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 22% | 88% | |
| 30 | 42% | 66% | Median |
| 31 | 12% | 24% | |
| 32 | 10% | 12% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 19% | 98% | |
| 17 | 45% | 80% | Median |
| 18 | 28% | 35% | |
| 19 | 6% | 7% | |
| 20 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 13 | 20% | 97% | |
| 14 | 53% | 77% | Median |
| 15 | 20% | 24% | |
| 16 | 4% | 4% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 3% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 26% | 97% | |
| 11 | 61% | 71% | Median |
| 12 | 10% | 11% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 24% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 51% | 75% | Median |
| 10 | 23% | 24% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 30 | 0% | 28–32 | 28–32 | 28–32 | 27–33 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 11% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 22% | 88% | |
| 30 | 42% | 66% | Median |
| 31 | 12% | 24% | |
| 32 | 10% | 12% | |
| 33 | 2% | 2% | |
| 34 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 35 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 8 | 24% | 99.1% | |
| 9 | 51% | 75% | Median |
| 10 | 23% | 24% | |
| 11 | 1.5% | 1.5% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.0% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 2 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 1.0% | |
| 4 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Cluster17
- Commissioner(s): Politico
- Fieldwork period: 19–22 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1842
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.03%