Opinion Poll by OpinionWay for CNews, 21–22 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.8% | 33.9–37.8% | 33.3–38.4% | 32.9–38.9% | 32.0–39.9% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 15.9% | 14.5–17.5% | 14.1–18.0% | 13.7–18.4% | 13.1–19.1% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 15.9% | 14.5–17.5% | 14.1–18.0% | 13.7–18.4% | 13.1–19.1% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 13.1% | 11.8–14.6% | 11.5–15.0% | 11.2–15.4% | 10.6–16.2% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 11.9% | 10.7–13.3% | 10.3–13.7% | 10.0–14.1% | 9.4–14.8% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.6–1.9% | 0.4–2.2% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.1–0.5% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.1–0.7% | 0.0–1.0% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 30–34 | 29–35 | 29–35 | 28–35 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 14 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 12–15 | 11–16 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 14 | 13–15 | 13–16 | 12–16 | 11–17 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 10–13 | 9–14 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 12% | 94% | |
| 31 | 25% | 82% | |
| 32 | 36% | 57% | Median |
| 33 | 11% | 22% | |
| 34 | 5% | 10% | |
| 35 | 5% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 14% | 98% | |
| 13 | 28% | 84% | |
| 14 | 38% | 57% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 19% | |
| 16 | 1.0% | 1.2% | |
| 17 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 12 | 3% | 99.2% | |
| 13 | 44% | 96% | |
| 14 | 27% | 52% | Median |
| 15 | 17% | 25% | |
| 16 | 8% | 8% | |
| 17 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 18 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 10 | 13% | 98% | |
| 11 | 48% | 86% | Median |
| 12 | 16% | 37% | |
| 13 | 21% | 22% | |
| 14 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 21% | 98% | |
| 10 | 41% | 77% | Median |
| 11 | 28% | 36% | |
| 12 | 7% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 32 | 0% | 30–34 | 29–35 | 29–35 | 28–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 10 | 0% | 9–11 | 9–12 | 9–12 | 8–13 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 29 | 5% | 99.4% | |
| 30 | 12% | 94% | |
| 31 | 25% | 82% | |
| 32 | 36% | 57% | Median |
| 33 | 11% | 22% | |
| 34 | 5% | 10% | |
| 35 | 5% | 5% | |
| 36 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 37 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 38 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 21% | 98% | |
| 10 | 41% | 77% | Median |
| 11 | 28% | 36% | |
| 12 | 7% | 8% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 6% | |
| 4 | 6% | 6% | |
| 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: OpinionWay
- Commissioner(s): CNews
- Fieldwork period: 21–22 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 974
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.15%