Opinion Poll by Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL, 23 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 34.0% | 32.3–35.8% | 31.8–36.3% | 31.4–36.7% | 30.6–37.6% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 17.3% | 16.0–18.8% | 15.6–19.2% | 15.3–19.6% | 14.7–20.3% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 14.2% | 13.0–15.6% | 12.7–16.0% | 12.4–16.3% | 11.8–17.0% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 12.7% | 11.5–14.0% | 11.2–14.3% | 10.9–14.6% | 10.4–15.3% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 9.5% | 8.5–10.7% | 8.2–11.0% | 8.0–11.3% | 7.5–11.9% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.3% | 4.6–6.3% | 4.4–6.5% | 4.2–6.8% | 3.9–7.2% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 2.0% | 1.5–2.6% | 1.4–2.8% | 1.3–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.4% | 1.3–2.6% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.0–3.0% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.0% | 1.0–2.2% | 0.9–2.3% | 0.8–2.6% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.6% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–2.0% |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 31 | 29–32 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 27–35 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 13–18 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 13 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–15 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 | 9–13 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| La France humaniste (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 17% | 93% | |
| 30 | 18% | 76% | |
| 31 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 32 | 34% | 41% | |
| 33 | 2% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 6% | |
| 35 | 4% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 10% | 98% | |
| 15 | 24% | 87% | |
| 16 | 45% | 63% | Median |
| 17 | 14% | 19% | |
| 18 | 5% | 5% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 11 | 10% | 98.8% | |
| 12 | 36% | 88% | |
| 13 | 21% | 53% | Median |
| 14 | 31% | 32% | |
| 15 | 0.6% | 1.0% | |
| 16 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 17 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 2% | 100% | |
| 10 | 14% | 98% | |
| 11 | 35% | 84% | Median |
| 12 | 45% | 49% | |
| 13 | 4% | 4% | |
| 14 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 15 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 32% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 45% | 68% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 23% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 5 | 42% | 43% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
La France humaniste (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France humaniste (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 31 | 0% | 29–32 | 28–34 | 28–35 | 27–35 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 7–9 | 7–9 | 7–9 | 6–10 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0.7% | 99.9% | |
| 28 | 6% | 99.3% | |
| 29 | 17% | 93% | |
| 30 | 18% | 76% | |
| 31 | 17% | 58% | Median |
| 32 | 34% | 41% | |
| 33 | 2% | 7% | |
| 34 | 2% | 6% | |
| 35 | 4% | 4% | |
| 36 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.9% | 100% | |
| 7 | 32% | 99.1% | |
| 8 | 45% | 68% | Median |
| 9 | 21% | 23% | |
| 10 | 2% | 2% | |
| 11 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 12 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 50% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 50% | |
| 2 | 0% | 50% | |
| 3 | 0% | 50% | |
| 4 | 7% | 50% | Median |
| 5 | 42% | 43% | |
| 6 | 0.8% | 0.9% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Harris Interactive
- Commissioner(s): M6 and RTL
- Fieldwork period: 23 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1217
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.51%