Opinion Poll by Ifop–Fiducial for LCI, 27–29 October 2026
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0.0% | 35.8% | 33.9–37.6% | 33.4–38.1% | 33.0–38.6% | 32.1–39.5% |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 17.7% | 16.2–19.2% | 15.9–19.6% | 15.5–20.0% | 14.9–20.8% |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0.0% | 13.5% | 12.3–14.9% | 11.9–15.3% | 11.6–15.7% | 11.1–16.4% |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0.0% | 11.2% | 10.1–12.5% | 9.8–12.9% | 9.5–13.2% | 9.0–13.8% |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0.0% | 10.0% | 9.0–11.3% | 8.7–11.6% | 8.4–11.9% | 7.9–12.6% |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6–5.2% | 3.4–5.4% | 3.3–5.7% | 3.0–6.1% |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.6–3.9% | 2.4–4.1% | 2.3–4.3% | 2.0–4.7% |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.3–2.7% | 1.2–2.9% | 1.1–3.2% |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.2% | 0.3–1.3% | 0.2–1.5% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 31–35 | 31–36 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 14–18 | 14–18 | 14–19 |
| Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) | 0 | 12 | 11–14 | 11–14 | 10–14 | 10–15 |
| Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) | 0 | 10 | 9–11 | 9–12 | 8–12 | 8–13 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lutte Ouvrière (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Rassemblement national (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 13% | 96% | |
| 32 | 14% | 82% | |
| 33 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 34 | 21% | 43% | |
| 35 | 15% | 22% | |
| 36 | 7% | 8% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
La France insoumise (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the La France insoumise (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0.4% | 99.9% | |
| 14 | 13% | 99.5% | |
| 15 | 24% | 87% | |
| 16 | 20% | 63% | Median |
| 17 | 35% | 43% | |
| 18 | 6% | 8% | |
| 19 | 2% | 2% | |
| 20 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Renaissance–Mouvement démocrate–Horizons (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 10 | 3% | 99.5% | |
| 11 | 23% | 97% | |
| 12 | 34% | 73% | Median |
| 13 | 28% | 39% | |
| 14 | 10% | 11% | |
| 15 | 0.9% | 1.0% | |
| 16 | 0% | 0% |
Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti socialiste–Place Publique (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.4% | 100% | |
| 8 | 4% | 99.6% | |
| 9 | 29% | 96% | |
| 10 | 37% | 67% | Median |
| 11 | 24% | 30% | |
| 12 | 6% | 6% | |
| 13 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Républicains (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 22% | 97% | |
| 9 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 10 | 43% | 48% | |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Reconquête (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 4% | 7% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Les Écologistes – Europe Écologie Les Verts (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0.4% | |
| 4 | 0.3% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Parti communiste français (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Debout la France (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Debout la France (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Lutte Ouvrière (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lutte Ouvrière (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rassemblement national (PfE) | 0 | 33 | 0% | 31–35 | 31–36 | 30–36 | 29–37 |
| Les Républicains (EPP) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–10 | 8–10 | 7–11 | 7–11 |
| Reconquête (ESN) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0–4 | 0–5 | 0–5 |
| Debout la France (ECR) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rassemblement national (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0% | 100% | |
| 17 | 0% | 100% | |
| 18 | 0% | 100% | |
| 19 | 0% | 100% | |
| 20 | 0% | 100% | |
| 21 | 0% | 100% | |
| 22 | 0% | 100% | |
| 23 | 0% | 100% | |
| 24 | 0% | 100% | |
| 25 | 0% | 100% | |
| 26 | 0% | 100% | |
| 27 | 0% | 100% | |
| 28 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 29 | 1.0% | 99.9% | |
| 30 | 3% | 99.0% | |
| 31 | 13% | 96% | |
| 32 | 14% | 82% | |
| 33 | 26% | 69% | Median |
| 34 | 21% | 43% | |
| 35 | 15% | 22% | |
| 36 | 7% | 8% | |
| 37 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 38 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 39 | 0% | 0% |
Les Républicains (EPP)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 7 | 3% | 99.8% | |
| 8 | 22% | 97% | |
| 9 | 27% | 75% | Median |
| 10 | 43% | 48% | |
| 11 | 5% | 5% | |
| 12 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Reconquête (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 7% | |
| 4 | 4% | 7% | |
| 5 | 3% | 3% | |
| 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Debout la France (ECR)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Ifop–Fiducial
- Commissioner(s): LCI
- Fieldwork period: 27–29 October 2026
Calculations
- Sample size: 1116
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 2.47%