Opinion Poll by Nézőpont Intézet, 15–17 July 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 47.0% | 45.0–49.0% | 44.4–49.6% | 43.9–50.1% | 43.0–51.1% |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 29.0% | 27.2–30.9% | 26.7–31.4% | 26.3–31.9% | 25.4–32.8% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 9.0% | 7.9–10.3% | 7.6–10.6% | 7.4–10.9% | 6.9–11.6% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.8–6.6% | 4.5–7.0% | 4.3–7.2% | 4.0–7.7% |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.2–6.0% | 4.0–6.3% | 3.8–6.5% | 3.5–7.1% |
| Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.0–2.0% | 0.9–2.2% | 0.8–2.3% | 0.7–2.7% |
| Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.7–1.5% | 0.6–1.7% | 0.5–1.8% | 0.4–2.1% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 |
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 7 | 6–7 | 6–7 | 6–8 | 6–8 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 12% | 100% | |
| 11 | 66% | 88% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 22% | 22% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 6 | 34% | 99.9% | |
| 7 | 63% | 66% | Median |
| 8 | 3% | 3% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 14% | 100% | |
| 2 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 82% | 82% | Median |
| 2 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 48% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 52% | 52% | Median |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 11 | 88% | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–13 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 12% | 100% | |
| 11 | 66% | 88% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 22% | 22% | |
| 13 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 14% | 100% | |
| 2 | 86% | 86% | Median |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Nézőpont Intézet
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 15–17 July 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.42%