Opinion Poll by Medián for HVG, 27 February–8 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 45.5% | 43.5–47.5% | 42.9–48.1% | 42.4–48.6% | 41.5–49.6% |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 36.6% | 34.7–38.6% | 34.1–39.2% | 33.7–39.6% | 32.8–40.6% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.9% | 5.0–7.0% | 4.8–7.3% | 4.6–7.5% | 4.2–8.1% |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 11–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 | 10–12 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 9% | 100% | |
| 11 | 73% | 91% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 18% | 18% | |
| 13 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 14 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 21% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 74% | 79% | Median |
| 10 | 6% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 92% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 8% | 8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 9 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–10 | 8–10 | 8–10 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 8 | 21% | 99.9% | |
| 9 | 74% | 79% | Median |
| 10 | 6% | 6% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 90% | 91% | Median |
| 2 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Medián
- Commissioner(s): HVG
- Fieldwork period: 27 February–8 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.50%