Opinion Poll by Publicus Research for Népszava, 8–12 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0.0% | 46.0% | 44.0–48.0% | 43.4–48.6% | 42.9–49.1% | 42.0–50.1% |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0.0% | 37.0% | 35.1–39.0% | 34.5–39.6% | 34.0–40.0% | 33.2–41.0% |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0.0% | 7.0% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.5% | 5.6–8.8% | 5.2–9.3% |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.7–7.7% | 4.3–8.2% |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 4.0% | 3.3–4.9% | 3.1–5.2% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.7–5.9% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) | 0 | 11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 10–11 | 9–12 |
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 10 | 43% | 99.2% | |
| 11 | 55% | 56% | Median, Majority |
| 12 | 1.3% | 1.3% | |
| 13 | 0% | 0% |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 61% | 98.8% | Median |
| 9 | 38% | 38% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 99.7% | Median |
| 2 | 7% | 7% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) | 0 | 8 | 0% | 8–9 | 8–9 | 8–9 | 7–9 |
| Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) | 0 | 1 | 0% | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 1.2% | 100% | |
| 8 | 61% | 98.8% | Median |
| 9 | 38% | 38% | |
| 10 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 11 | 0% | 0% | Majority |
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 92% | 92% | Median |
| 2 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Publicus Research
- Commissioner(s): Népszava
- Fieldwork period: 8–12 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 0.61%