Opinion Poll by Publicus Research for Népszava, 6–13 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0.0% 44.6% 42.6–46.6% 42.0–47.2% 41.5–47.7% 40.6–48.7%
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0.0% 37.6% 35.7–39.6% 35.1–40.2% 34.6–40.6% 33.7–41.6%
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.2%
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.1%
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0.0% 1.0% 0.7–1.5% 0.6–1.7% 0.5–1.8% 0.4–2.1%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) 0 11 10–11 10–11 10–11 9–12
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Tisztelet és Szabadság (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 1.4% 100%  
10 47% 98.6%  
11 50% 51% Median, Majority
12 2% 2%  
13 0% 0%  

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 25% 99.9%  
9 69% 75% Median
10 6% 6%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 92% 99.6% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0% 0%  

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Magyar Szocialista Párt (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE) 0 9 0% 8–9 8–10 8–10 8–10
Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN) 0 1 0% 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Fidesz–Kereszténydemokrata Néppárt (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0.1% 100%  
8 25% 99.9%  
9 69% 75% Median
10 6% 6%  
11 0% 0% Majority

Mi Hazánk Mozgalom (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 52% 52% Median
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations